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2018年(nian)6月(yue)，中(zhong)色(se)(se)鉛鋅產(chan)業月(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指數(shu)(shu)為(wei)38.5，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)上(shang)(shang)升0.4個點；先行合成(cheng)指數(shu)(shu)為(wei)62.0，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)上(shang)(shang)升1.1個點；一(yi)致合成(cheng)指數(shu)(shu)為(wei)68.9，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)上(shang)(shang)升0.1個點（近13個月(yue)鉛鋅產(chan)業月(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指數(shu)(shu)如表1所(suo)示）。中(zhong)色(se)(se)鉛鋅產(chan)業月(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指數(shu)(shu)監測結(jie)果顯(xian)示，鉛鋅產(chan)業景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指數(shu)(shu)持續(xu)位于“正常”區間運行。

表1  2017年6月至2018年6月中(zhong)色鉛鋅產業月度景(jing)氣指數

1、景氣指數位于“正常”區間并有所回升

中(zhong)色(se)鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)業月(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)數顯示，2018年(nian)6月(yue)景氣(qi)指(zhi)數為(wei)38.5，較上月(yue)上升0.4個點，目前景氣(qi)指(zhi)數持續位于(yu)“正常(chang)”區間運行。中(zhong)色(se)鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)業月(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)數趨勢如(ru)圖1所示。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖(tu)1  中(zhong)色鉛鋅產業景(jing)氣指(zhi)數趨勢圖(tu)

從中(zhong)色鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)業月度(du)景氣信號燈(deng)可(ke)見（見圖2），2018年6月，在構成中(zhong)色鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)業月度(du)景氣指數(shu)的9個(ge)指標中(zhong):鉛鋅(xin)價格指數(shu)、M2、鉛鋅(xin)礦(kuang)進口量、固定(ding)資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)、生產(chan)指數(shu)、主營業務收入、利潤總額位于(yu)“正常(chang)”區(qu)間；鉛酸蓄電(dian)池、鍍鋅(xin)板位于(yu)“偏(pian)冷(leng)”區(qu)間。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖(tu)2  中(zhong)色鉛鋅產業景氣信(xin)號(hao)燈圖(tu)

2、先行合成指有所回升

2018年6月，中色(se)鉛鋅(xin)產業先行合成指數為62.0，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)1.1個點（見圖3）。

在構成(cheng)中(zhong)色鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產業先行合成(cheng)指(zhi)(zhi)數的(de)6個指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)4漲2降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。其中(zhong)同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的(de)4個指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)，LME鉛(qian)(qian)鋅價格指(zhi)(zhi)數同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)14.8%、M2同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.6%、鉛(qian)(qian)鋅礦進口量指(zhi)(zhi)數同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)23.2%、固定資產投資同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.4%。同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)的(de)2個指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)，鉛(qian)(qian)酸蓄(xu)電(dian)池（千伏安時）同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)13.9%、鍍(du)鋅板(ban)同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)19.3%。

圖3  中(zhong)色鉛鋅產(chan)業合成指數曲線圖

3、產業運行特點及對近期運行趨勢的判斷

2018年以來(lai)，鉛鋅產業面臨來(lai)自環保和(he)原料供應(ying)的雙(shuang)重壓力，產量增長(chang)有(you)限(xian)；產業內部礦、冶利(li)潤分化加劇，消費動力不(bu)足。產業整體運行(xing)態勢主要呈現(xian)如(ru)下五方(fang)面特點：

一是再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)能投(tou)資偏熱，帶動產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資增長。受《生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)者責任(ren)延(yan)伸制度推行方案(an)》強調鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)對產(chan)(chan)品全(quan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命周期(qi)責任(ren)影(ying)響，鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)利用自身(shen)鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)終(zhong)端銷售渠道優勢(shi)，積極布局(ju)完(wan)善(shan)回收(shou)體系，并將產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈向(xiang)后端再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)冶煉延(yan)伸。雖部分(fen)鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)已和(he)現有再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)達成(cheng)合作共識，但多數鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)表現出積極的(de)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)能建設意(yi)向(xiang)。受此影(ying)響，疊加在當前環(huan)保大(da)形勢(shi)下鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)普遍加大(da)環(huan)保、安(an)全(quan)投(tou)資，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資同比有所增長。2018年5月(yue)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)完(wan)成(cheng)投(tou)資19.5億元(yuan)（季調后數據），同比增長7.4%。

二是環(huan)保疊加原料供(gong)給壓力(li)，產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。近年環(huan)保督查、執法力(li)度(du)不(bu)斷提(ti)升(sheng)，受此影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業以往存在的不(bu)合(he)規(gui)散亂污企業相繼關(guan)停。不(bu)合(he)規(gui)企業的關(guan)停對產(chan)(chan)(chan)業整體經營水(shui)平(ping)及產(chan)(chan)(chan)業集中度(du)的提(ti)高起到了積極作用(yong)，但(dan)短期內(nei)對原料供(gong)給產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)一定(ding)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。據初步估算，此次環(huan)保行動導致約20%鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能關(guan)停，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。2018年1-5月，中國鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)礦(kuang)累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)45.4萬噸，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)8.8%；鋅(xin)(xin)精(jing)礦(kuang)累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)117.0萬噸，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)7.2%。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)金屬產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面，受鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)礦(kuang)進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，原生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)有(you)(you)所下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)滑。再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)2017年同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)較快，但(dan)2018年受長(chang)江經濟(ji)帶清廢行動及有(you)(you)關(guan)環(huan)保事件影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)放(fang)緩。精(jing)煉鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面，雖然鋅(xin)(xin)精(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，但(dan)鋅(xin)(xin)精(jing)礦(kuang)進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)，精(jing)煉鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)小(xiao)幅增(zeng)長(chang)。從數據上看，2018年5月鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)指(zhi)數同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)14.6%。

三是(shi)產(chan)(chan)業初級消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降，終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)動(dong)力(li)不足。從(cong)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)上看(kan)，鉛鋅(xin)(xin)初級消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)領(ling)域2018年(nian)(nian)5月(yue)(yue)鉛酸(suan)(suan)蓄電(dian)池(chi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)1415.7千伏安時(shi)（季(ji)調后(hou)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)），同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降13.9%；1-5月(yue)(yue)鉛酸(suan)(suan)蓄電(dian)池(chi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)7310.8千伏安時(shi)（季(ji)調后(hou)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)），同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降12.7%；5月(yue)(yue)鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)405.7萬噸(dun)（季(ji)調后(hou)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)），同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降19.3%；1-5月(yue)(yue)鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)2027.4萬噸(dun)（季(ji)調后(hou)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)），同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降19.2%。鉛鋅(xin)(xin)終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)領(ling)域，2018年(nian)(nian)1-5月(yue)(yue)，中國汽(qi)車(che)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)1199.3萬輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.0%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降4.3個百(bai)分點(dian)；冰(bing)箱累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)3268.6萬臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.4%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降6.1個百(bai)分點(dian)；洗衣機累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)2856.6萬臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降3.2個百(bai)分點(dian)。雖然(ran)從(cong)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)上看(kan)鉛鋅(xin)(xin)終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)領(ling)域產(chan)(chan)品(pin)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)仍有(you)(you)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，但增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)出(chu)現下(xia)(xia)降。此(ci)外，鉛酸(suan)(suan)蓄電(dian)池(chi)產(chan)(chan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)受到新能源電(dian)池(chi)沖擊，鋅(xin)(xin)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)雖然(ran)在城市管廊建(jian)設上仍有(you)(you)亮點(dian)，但主要消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)領(ling)域鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)方(fang)面，受鋼材消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)平臺期(qi)的到來(lai)影響，總體(ti)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)難有(you)(you)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，鉛鋅(xin)(xin)終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)動(dong)力(li)不足。

四是鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)走勢有(you)所分(fen)化，產(chan)(chan)業內礦、冶利潤(run)(run)分(fen)化加(jia)劇。從鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)看(kan)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)受環(huan)(huan)保清(qing)廢行(xing)(xing)動導致(zhi)部(bu)分(fen)再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)能關停，精(jing)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)供給下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，下(xia)(xia)游(you)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電池積極備貨影響，短期內庫存下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，支撐鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)行(xing)(xing)。2018年(nian)(nian)6月(yue)(yue)LME三(san)月(yue)(yue)期鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)2451美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)13.9%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)3.4%；SHEF主力合約鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)20469元(yuan)/噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)20.0%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)4.5%。鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)方面，鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)原料供應雖依然(ran)緊張(zhang)但與(yu)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)有(you)所趨緩，加(jia)之下(xia)(xia)游(you)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)動力不(bu)足，價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)呈(cheng)震蕩(dang)態(tai)勢：2018年(nian)(nian)6月(yue)(yue)LME三(san)月(yue)(yue)期鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)3058美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)18.3%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)0.3%；SHEF主力合約鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)13.0%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)0.4%。當(dang)前鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)仍位于(yu)相(xiang)對高位運行(xing)(xing)，因而(er)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)采選(xuan)盈利能力尚可(ke)，2018年(nian)(nian)1-5月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)采選(xuan)實現利潤(run)(run)總額(e)71.6億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)17.1%。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)冶煉(lian)產(chan)(chan)業受原料供應依然(ran)緊張(zhang)影響，冶煉(lian)加(jia)工費(fei)(fei)走低，目前全產(chan)(chan)業處于(yu)微(wei)利運行(xing)(xing)狀態(tai)。2018年(nian)(nian)1-5月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)冶煉(lian)實現利潤(run)(run)總額(e)5.1億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)77%。

五是環保(bao)要求(qiu)不斷(duan)提(ti)升，鉛鋅(xin)(xin)產業(ye)(ye)重金(jin)屬(shu)污染(ran)防治壓(ya)力(li)凸顯(xian)。根據《關于加(jia)強(qiang)涉重金(jin)屬(shu)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)污染(ran)防控的意見》（環土壤[2018]22號）文件(jian)精神要求(qiu)，到(dao)2020年(nian)重金(jin)屬(shu)污染(ran)排放總(zong)量(liang)要比2013年(nian)再下降10%。另外，長(chang)江經濟帶(dai)環境保(bao)護行(xing)動(dong)正在開展，根據初步統(tong)計長(chang)江流域涉及鉛企(qi)業(ye)(ye)產量(liang)占(zhan)全國60%，鋅(xin)(xin)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)產量(liang)占(zhan)全國50%左右。在當前環保(bao)形(xing)勢下，鉛鋅(xin)(xin)產業(ye)(ye)作(zuo)為重金(jin)屬(shu)污染(ran)重點領域，污染(ran)防治壓(ya)力(li)凸顯(xian)。

綜上，2018年6月鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)呈現產(chan)(chan)量小幅下降(jiang)，原料供應依然緊(jin)張，鉛(qian)(qian)金(jin)屬(shu)價格(ge)短期(qi)上漲，鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)價格(ge)高(gao)位震蕩(dang)，產(chan)(chan)業(ye)選(xuan)、冶利潤分化加(jia)劇(ju)的(de)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)態勢(shi)。預測(ce)三季(ji)度(du)環保仍將是(shi)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)需(xu)關注的(de)重(zhong)點，生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)上冶煉企(qi)業(ye)或將根據實(shi)際運(yun)行(xing)(xing)情況(kuang)進行(xing)(xing)合理排產(chan)(chan)，消(xiao)費端進入鉛(qian)(qian)消(xiao)費旺(wang)季(ji)或對(dui)鉛(qian)(qian)消(xiao)費有所(suo)拉動(dong)，未來再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展趨(qu)勢(shi)有待觀察。三季(ji)度(du)鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬(shu)價格(ge)仍能獲得一定支撐(cheng)，但長期(qi)看(kan)供需(xu)矛盾(dun)將有所(suo)緩解(jie)，鋅(xin)(xin)價反彈空間有限。短期(qi)看(kan)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)仍將處于“正常(chang)”區間運(yun)行(xing)(xing)。（馬駿執筆）

附注：

1、鉛鋅產業景氣先行合成指數（簡稱：先行指數）用于判斷鉛鋅產業經濟運行的近期變化趨勢。該指數由以下6項指標構成：LME鉛鋅價格指數、M2、鉛酸蓄電池、鍍鋅板、鉛鋅礦進口量指數、固定資產投資指數。

2、鉛鋅產業一致合成指標（簡稱：一致指數）反映當前鉛鋅產業經濟的運行狀況。該指數由以下3項指標構成：生產指數、主營業務收入指數、利潤總額指數。

3、鉛鋅產業滯后合成指標（簡稱：滯后指數）與一致指數一起主要用來監測經濟變動的趨勢，起到事后驗證的作用。該指數由以下3項指標構成：流動資本余額、應收賬款總額、產成品余額。

4、綜合景氣指數反映當前鉛鋅產業發展景氣程度。景氣燈號圖把鉛鋅產業經濟運行狀態分為5個級別，“紅燈”表示經濟過熱，“黃燈”表示經濟偏熱，“綠燈”表示經濟運行正常，“淺藍燈”表示經濟偏冷，“藍燈”表示經濟過冷。對單項指標燈號賦予不同的權重，將其匯總而成的綜合景氣指數也同樣由5個燈區顯示。

綜合景氣指數由9項指標構成，即先行指數和一致指數的構成指標。

5、編制指數所用各項指標均經過季節調整，已剔除季節因素。

6、每月都將對以前的月度景氣指數進行修訂。當時間序列加入最新的一個月的數據后，以往月度景氣指數會或多或少地發生變化，這是模型自動修正的結果。

7、生產指數，包括國內生產鉛、鋅精礦金屬含量、精煉鉛、鋅產量。進口量指數，包括進口鉛、鋅精礦含鉛、鋅量、進口精煉鉛、鋅金屬量。

【責任編輯：李瑛】