文章來源：中國有色金屬工業協會 發布時間：2020-04-18
2018年6月(yue)(yue)(yue)，中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業(ye)月(yue)(yue)(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為38.5，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)升(sheng)0.4個點(dian)；先行(xing)(xing)合成指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為62.0，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)升(sheng)1.1個點(dian)；一致合成指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為68.9，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)升(sheng)0.1個點(dian)（近(jin)13個月(yue)(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業(ye)月(yue)(yue)(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)如表1所示(shi)）。中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業(ye)月(yue)(yue)(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)監測結果顯(xian)示(shi)，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業(ye)景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)持續位于“正(zheng)常”區間運行(xing)(xing)。
表1 2017年6月至(zhi)2018年6月中色鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業月度景氣指數
1、景氣指數位于“正常”區間并有所回升
中色(se)鉛(qian)鋅產業(ye)月度景氣指(zhi)數顯示，2018年6月景氣指(zhi)數為38.5，較(jiao)上月上升0.4個點，目前景氣指(zhi)數持續位(wei)于“正常(chang)”區間運(yun)行。中色(se)鉛(qian)鋅產業(ye)月度景氣指(zhi)數趨勢如圖1所示。
注：
<過熱>
<偏熱>
<正常>
<偏冷>
<過冷>
圖1 中(zhong)色鉛(qian)鋅產業(ye)景氣指數趨勢(shi)圖
從中色(se)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)業(ye)月(yue)度(du)景(jing)氣信號燈可見（見圖2），2018年6月(yue)，在構成(cheng)中色(se)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)業(ye)月(yue)度(du)景(jing)氣指(zhi)數的9個(ge)指(zhi)標中:鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)價格指(zhi)數、M2、鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)礦進口量(liang)、固定資產(chan)投資、生(sheng)產(chan)指(zhi)數、主營(ying)業(ye)務收入(ru)、利潤(run)總額位(wei)于“正常”區(qu)間(jian)；鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池(chi)、鍍鋅(xin)(xin)板位(wei)于“偏冷(leng)”區(qu)間(jian)。
注：
<過熱>
<偏熱>
<正常>
<偏冷>
<過(guo)冷>
圖2 中(zhong)色鉛鋅產業景氣信號燈圖
2、先行合成指有所回升
2018年6月(yue)，中色鉛鋅產業先行合成指數為62.0，較上月(yue)上升1.1個點(dian)（見圖3）。
在構成中(zhong)色(se)鉛(qian)鋅產業先行合成指(zhi)數(shu)的(de)6個(ge)(ge)指(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)4漲(zhang)2降(jiang)。其中(zhong)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)4個(ge)(ge)指(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)，LME鉛(qian)鋅價格(ge)指(zhi)數(shu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長14.8%、M2同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長8.6%、鉛(qian)鋅礦進(jin)口量指(zhi)數(shu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長23.2%、固定(ding)資產投資同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長7.4%。同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)的(de)2個(ge)(ge)指(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)，鉛(qian)酸蓄電池（千伏(fu)安時）同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)13.9%、鍍鋅板(ban)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)19.3%。
圖(tu)3 中(zhong)色鉛(qian)鋅產業合成指數曲線(xian)圖(tu)
3、產業運行特點及對近期運行趨勢的判斷
2018年以來(lai)，鉛鋅產業面臨來(lai)自環(huan)保和(he)原料供(gong)應的雙重壓力，產量增(zeng)長(chang)有限；產業內部礦(kuang)、冶利潤(run)分化加劇(ju)，消費動(dong)力不足(zu)。產業整體運(yun)行態勢主(zhu)要呈現如下五方面特點：
一是(shi)再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能投資(zi)偏熱(re)，帶動產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)投資(zi)增長。受《生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)者責(ze)任(ren)(ren)延伸(shen)(shen)制度推行方案》強調(diao)鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)池(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)對(dui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品全生(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)周期責(ze)任(ren)(ren)影(ying)(ying)響，鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)池(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)利用(yong)自身鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)池(chi)終(zhong)端銷售渠道(dao)優(you)勢，積極布(bu)局(ju)完善回收體系(xi)，并將產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈向(xiang)(xiang)后端再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)冶煉(lian)延伸(shen)(shen)。雖部分鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)池(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)已和現有再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)達(da)成合(he)作共識，但多數鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)池(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)表(biao)現出積極的再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能建設意向(xiang)(xiang)。受此(ci)影(ying)(ying)響，疊加在當前環保大形勢下(xia)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)普(pu)遍加大環保、安全投資(zi)，鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)投資(zi)同比有所(suo)增長。2018年5月鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)完成投資(zi)19.5億元（季調(diao)后數據），同比增長7.4%。
二是環(huan)保(bao)疊加原(yuan)料供給壓(ya)力，產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)。近年(nian)(nian)環(huan)保(bao)督查(cha)、執法力度不斷(duan)提升，受此影(ying)響(xiang)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)以往存在的(de)不合(he)(he)規散亂污企業(ye)(ye)相繼關停(ting)(ting)。不合(he)(he)規企業(ye)(ye)的(de)關停(ting)(ting)對產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)整體經營水平及(ji)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)集中度的(de)提高起到了積(ji)極作(zuo)用(yong)，但(dan)短(duan)期(qi)內對原(yuan)料供給產(chan)(chan)生(sheng)一定(ding)影(ying)響(xiang)。據(ju)初步估(gu)算，此次環(huan)保(bao)行(xing)動(dong)導致約20%鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)能關停(ting)(ting)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)。2018年(nian)(nian)1-5月，中國鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)45.4萬噸，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)8.8%；鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)117.0萬噸，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)7.2%。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅金屬產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方面，受鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)下降(jiang)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)進(jin)口量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)下降(jiang)影(ying)響(xiang)，原(yuan)生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)有(you)(you)所下滑。再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)2017年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)速較快，但(dan)2018年(nian)(nian)受長(chang)江經濟帶(dai)清廢(fei)行(xing)動(dong)及(ji)有(you)(you)關環(huan)保(bao)事件影(ying)響(xiang)，再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速放緩(huan)。精(jing)(jing)(jing)煉鋅產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方面，雖然(ran)鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)，但(dan)鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)進(jin)口量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)，精(jing)(jing)(jing)煉鋅產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)小幅增(zeng)長(chang)。從數據(ju)上看，2018年(nian)(nian)5月鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)指(zhi)數同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)14.6%。
三是(shi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)初級消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)動力不(bu)(bu)足。從(cong)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)數(shu)據上看(kan)，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)初級消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)領(ling)域(yu)(yu)2018年(nian)5月鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)1415.7千伏安時(shi)(shi)（季(ji)調(diao)后數(shu)據），同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)13.9%；1-5月鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)7310.8千伏安時(shi)(shi)（季(ji)調(diao)后數(shu)據），同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)12.7%；5月鍍(du)鋅(xin)板產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)405.7萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)（季(ji)調(diao)后數(shu)據），同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)19.3%；1-5月鍍(du)鋅(xin)板產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)2027.4萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)（季(ji)調(diao)后數(shu)據），同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)19.2%。鉛(qian)鋅(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)領(ling)域(yu)(yu)，2018年(nian)1-5月，中國汽車(che)累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)1199.3萬(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)2.0%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較(jiao)去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)4.3個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)；冰箱累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)3268.6萬(wan)臺，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.4%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較(jiao)去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)6.1個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)；洗衣機累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)2856.6萬(wan)臺，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)1.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較(jiao)去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)3.2個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。雖(sui)(sui)然從(cong)數(shu)據上看(kan)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)領(ling)域(yu)(yu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)仍有增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，但增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)較(jiao)去(qu)年(nian)出(chu)現下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。此外，鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)受到新能源電(dian)池沖擊，鋅(xin)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)雖(sui)(sui)然在城市管(guan)廊建設(she)上仍有亮(liang)點(dian)，但主要消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)領(ling)域(yu)(yu)鍍(du)鋅(xin)方面，受鋼材消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)平臺期(qi)的到來影響，總體消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)難(nan)有增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)動力不(bu)(bu)足。
四是鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)走勢有所分(fen)化，產業內(nei)礦、冶(ye)(ye)利(li)潤分(fen)化加劇。從鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)看，鉛(qian)(qian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)受環(huan)保清(qing)廢行動(dong)導致部分(fen)再生鉛(qian)(qian)產能(neng)關停(ting)，精鉛(qian)(qian)供給(gei)下降(jiang)，下游(you)鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電池積極(ji)備貨影(ying)響，短(duan)期內(nei)庫存下降(jiang)，支撐(cheng)鉛(qian)(qian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)行。2018年(nian)6月(yue)(yue)LME三(san)月(yue)(yue)期鉛(qian)(qian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)2451美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)13.9%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)3.4%；SHEF主力(li)合約鉛(qian)(qian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)20469元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)20.0%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)4.5%。鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)方(fang)面，鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)原料(liao)供應雖依然緊(jin)張(zhang)但(dan)與去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)有所趨緩，加之下游(you)消費動(dong)力(li)不足，價(jia)格(ge)(ge)呈震蕩(dang)態(tai)勢：2018年(nian)6月(yue)(yue)LME三(san)月(yue)(yue)期鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)3058美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)18.3%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下跌0.3%；SHEF主力(li)合約鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)13.0%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.4%。當(dang)前鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)仍位(wei)于(yu)相(xiang)對高位(wei)運(yun)行，因而(er)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)采選盈利(li)能(neng)力(li)尚可(ke)，2018年(nian)1-5月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)采選實現利(li)潤總額(e)71.6億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長17.1%。鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)產業受原料(liao)供應依然緊(jin)張(zhang)影(ying)響，冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)加工(gong)費走低，目前全產業處于(yu)微利(li)運(yun)行狀態(tai)。2018年(nian)1-5月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)冶(ye)(ye)煉(lian)實現利(li)潤總額(e)5.1億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)77%。
五是環保要求(qiu)不斷提升，鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產業(ye)重(zhong)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)污染防(fang)治(zhi)壓力(li)凸顯(xian)(xian)。根據(ju)《關于加強(qiang)涉重(zhong)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)行(xing)業(ye)污染防(fang)控的意見(jian)》（環土壤[2018]22號）文件精神要求(qiu)，到2020年重(zhong)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)污染排(pai)放(fang)總量(liang)要比2013年再下(xia)(xia)降10%。另外(wai)，長江經濟帶(dai)環境(jing)保護行(xing)動正在開展，根據(ju)初步統計長江流域涉及鉛(qian)(qian)企業(ye)產量(liang)占(zhan)全國(guo)60%，鋅企業(ye)產量(liang)占(zhan)全國(guo)50%左右。在當(dang)前環保形勢下(xia)(xia)，鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產業(ye)作為重(zhong)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)污染重(zhong)點領域，污染防(fang)治(zhi)壓力(li)凸顯(xian)(xian)。
綜(zong)上(shang)，2018年(nian)6月鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)呈現產(chan)量小幅下(xia)降，原料供(gong)應(ying)依(yi)然緊張，鉛(qian)金(jin)屬價格短期(qi)上(shang)漲，鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬價格高位震蕩，產(chan)業(ye)(ye)選(xuan)、冶利潤分化加劇的運(yun)(yun)行態(tai)勢。預測三(san)(san)季(ji)度(du)環保(bao)仍(reng)(reng)將是鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)運(yun)(yun)行需(xu)關注的重(zhong)點，生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)上(shang)冶煉企業(ye)(ye)或將根據(ju)實際(ji)運(yun)(yun)行情況(kuang)進行合(he)理排產(chan)，消費端進入鉛(qian)消費旺季(ji)或對鉛(qian)消費有(you)所拉(la)動(dong)，未來再生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)發展趨勢有(you)待觀察。三(san)(san)季(ji)度(du)鋅(xin)(xin)金(jin)屬價格仍(reng)(reng)能獲得一(yi)定(ding)支撐，但長(chang)期(qi)看供(gong)需(xu)矛盾將有(you)所緩解，鋅(xin)(xin)價反彈(dan)空間有(you)限。短期(qi)看鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)仍(reng)(reng)將處于(yu)“正(zheng)常”區間運(yun)(yun)行。（馬(ma)駿執(zhi)筆(bi)）
附注：
1、鉛鋅產業景氣先行合成指數（簡稱：先行指數）用于判斷鉛鋅產業經濟運行的近期變化趨勢。該指數由以下6項指標構成：LME鉛鋅價格指數、M2、鉛酸蓄電池、鍍鋅板、鉛鋅礦進口量指數、固定資產投資指數。
2、鉛鋅產業一致合成指標（簡稱：一致指數）反映當前鉛鋅產業經濟的運行狀況。該指數由以下3項指標構成：生產指數、主營業務收入指數、利潤總額指數。
3、鉛鋅產業滯后合成指標（簡稱：滯后指數）與一致指數一起主要用來監測經濟變動的趨勢，起到事后驗證的作用。該指數由以下3項指標構成：流動資本余額、應收賬款總額、產成品余額。
4、綜合景氣指數反映當前鉛鋅產業發展景氣程度。景氣燈號圖把鉛鋅產業經濟運行狀態分為5個級別，“紅燈”表示經濟過熱，“黃燈”表示經濟偏熱，“綠燈”表示經濟運行正常，“淺藍燈”表示經濟偏冷，“藍燈”表示經濟過冷。對單項指標燈號賦予不同的權重，將其匯總而成的綜合景氣指數也同樣由5個燈區顯示。
綜合景氣指數由9項指標構成，即先行指數和一致指數的構成指標。
5、編制指數所用各項指標均經過季節調整，已剔除季節因素。
6、每月都將對以前的月度景氣指數進行修訂。當時間序列加入最新的一個月的數據后，以往月度景氣指數會或多或少地發生變化，這是模型自動修正的結果。
7、生產指數，包括國內生產鉛、鋅精礦金屬含量、精煉鉛、鋅產量。進口量指數，包括進口鉛、鋅精礦含鉛、鋅量、進口精煉鉛、鋅金屬量。
【責任編輯：李瑛】
