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2018年(nian)9月(yue)(yue)，中色鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業月(yue)(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)為39.6，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)升(sheng)0.5個(ge)點；先行(xing)合成指(zhi)數(shu)為65.3，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)升(sheng)1.6個(ge)點；一致合成指(zhi)數(shu)為69.0，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)升(sheng)1.3個(ge)點（近(jin)13個(ge)月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業月(yue)(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)如表1所示）。中色鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業月(yue)(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)監(jian)測結果顯示，鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業景(jing)(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)持(chi)續位于“正常”區間運(yun)行(xing)。

表1  2017年9月至2018年9月中色鉛鋅產業月度景氣指數

1、景氣指數位于“正常”區間并有所回升

中(zhong)色鉛(qian)鋅產業月(yue)度景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數(shu)顯示(shi)，2018年9月(yue)景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)39.6，較上月(yue)上升0.5個點，目前景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數(shu)持續(xu)位于“正常”區(qu)間運行(xing)。中(zhong)色鉛(qian)鋅產業月(yue)度景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)指(zhi)數(shu)趨勢如圖1所示(shi)。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過(guo)冷>

圖1  中色(se)鉛鋅產業(ye)景(jing)氣指數趨勢圖

從中色鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產業月(yue)度景氣信號燈可見（見圖(tu)2），2018年9月(yue)，在構成中色鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產業月(yue)度景氣指(zhi)數的9個(ge)指(zhi)標中:鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)價格指(zhi)數、M2、鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)礦進(jin)口量、固定資產投資、生產指(zhi)數、主營業務收入、利(li)潤總額位于“正常”區(qu)間；鉛(qian)(qian)酸蓄(xu)電池、鍍鋅(xin)板位于“偏冷”區(qu)間。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖2  中色鉛鋅產(chan)業景氣信號燈圖

2、先行合成指有所回升

2018年9月，中色鉛(qian)鋅產業先(xian)行合成指數為65.3，較上(shang)月上(shang)升1.6個點（見圖3）。

在構成中(zhong)色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產業先行(xing)合(he)成指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)的(de)6個(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)標中(zhong)4漲2降(jiang)。其中(zhong)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的(de)4個(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)標中(zhong)，LME鉛(qian)鋅(xin)價(jia)格指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)1.0%、M2同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.6%、鉛(qian)鋅(xin)礦(kuang)進口量指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)59.1%、固定資產投(tou)資同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)16.5%。同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)的(de)2個(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)標中(zhong)，鉛(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池（千伏安時）同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)21.8%、鍍鋅(xin)板同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)11.5%。

圖3  中(zhong)色鉛鋅產(chan)業合成指數曲線(xian)圖

3、產業運行特點

2018年前三季度，鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業除冶煉環節生產(chan)經營壓力偏大外，整體能夠保持平穩運行。產(chan)業運行狀況呈現如下四方(fang)面(mian)特(te)點：

一(yi)是環保(bao)(bao)(bao)壓力持續增(zeng)大(da)，企(qi)(qi)業環保(bao)(bao)(bao)成本(ben)剛(gang)性上(shang)漲。2018年藍天保(bao)(bao)(bao)衛戰(zhan)重點(dian)區(qu)域在原有2+26城市(shi)(shi)基礎(chu)上(shang)，新增(zeng)汾渭平(ping)原11城市(shi)(shi)。清(qing)廢行動2018，涉(she)及長(chang)江經濟(ji)帶(dai)11省市(shi)(shi)。在環保(bao)(bao)(bao)標準、執法力度不斷(duan)增(zeng)強的大(da)背景下，環保(bao)(bao)(bao)重點(dian)省市(shi)(shi)不斷(duan)增(zeng)多，涉(she)及鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產能(neng)不斷(duan)擴大(da)。從長(chang)江經濟(ji)帶(dai)內鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產能(neng)占(zhan)比看，該流域涉(she)及鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉(lian)產能(neng)占(zhan)全國總產能(neng)比例60%，再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產能(neng)占(zhan)比80%，鋅(xin)冶(ye)煉(lian)產能(neng)占(zhan)比50%。大(da)氣污(wu)染重點(dian)區(qu)域內，河南省為鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉(lian)生(sheng)產大(da)省，河北省為鍍鋅(xin)產業大(da)省。因而上(shang)述區(qu)域內鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)生(sheng)產企(qi)(qi)業能(neng)否達(da)標穩定運行，將(jiang)直接影響鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產業平(ping)穩健康(kang)發(fa)展(zhan)。從環保(bao)(bao)(bao)政策影響上(shang)看，行業企(qi)(qi)業紛(fen)紛(fen)加大(da)環保(bao)(bao)(bao)投資，加強環保(bao)(bao)(bao)設(she)(she)施建(jian)設(she)(she)，企(qi)(qi)業環保(bao)(bao)(bao)成本(ben)剛(gang)性上(shang)漲。

二(er)是鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建設有(you)(you)所分化(hua)，鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)相對(dui)較高。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)原(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶煉(lian)(lian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)普(pu)遍高于(yu)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶煉(lian)(lian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)。但受(shou)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)盈利(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)增強(qiang)及未(wei)來(lai)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量占(zhan)比將(jiang)不斷增大(da)影(ying)響，原(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶煉(lian)(lian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)紛(fen)紛(fen)擴(kuo)大(da)原(yuan)(yuan)有(you)(you)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)受(shou)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)者(zhe)責任(ren)延伸制度影(ying)響，紛(fen)紛(fen)通過并(bing)購再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、新(xin)建再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的方式延伸產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)布(bu)局，再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建設投資偏熱。從初步統計數據看，中國年產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)廢(fei)(fei)舊鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池500萬(wan)噸(dun)，現有(you)(you)廢(fei)(fei)舊鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池拆解能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)700萬(wan)噸(dun)，未(wei)來(lai)仍有(you)(you)200-300萬(wan)噸(dun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在建，再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)面(mian)臨產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)過剩風險。鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建設方面(mian)，再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)占(zhan)比相對(dui)較低，原(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鋅冶煉(lian)(lian)新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)以原(yuan)(yuan)有(you)(you)冶煉(lian)(lian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)擴(kuo)建及礦山配套冶煉(lian)(lian)項目為主，總(zong)體新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)有(you)(you)限，實際投產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)規模受(shou)環保政策影(ying)響有(you)(you)待觀察(cha)。鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)位于(yu)合理區(qu)間。

三是精礦(kuang)(kuang)供應依然偏(pian)緊(jin)，冶煉(lian)經營壓力偏(pian)大(da)。受環(huan)保行動導致不合規小(xiao)型礦(kuang)(kuang)山關停及新投產(chan)(chan)礦(kuang)(kuang)山產(chan)(chan)能(neng)有限影(ying)響，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降。2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)8月(yue)，中國鉛(qian)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)10.0萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；1-8月(yue)份，中國累(lei)計鉛(qian)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)79.1萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降9.6%；2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)8月(yue)，中國鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)23.5萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；1-8月(yue)鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)178.0萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降8.1%，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)供應依然偏(pian)緊(jin)。鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)金屬(shu)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方面，精鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)有所增(zeng)長，其中再生鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長10.6%，高(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)原生鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長7.2個(ge)百分點，再生鉛(qian)生產(chan)(chan)對精鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長貢獻較大(da)。精鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方面，2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)8月(yue)，中國精鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)43.1萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；1-8月(yue)份精鋅(xin)(xin)累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)369.5萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降1.4%。精鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降除受鋅(xin)(xin)精礦(kuang)(kuang)供應緊(jin)張影(ying)響外，也受到冶煉(lian)加工(gong)費(fei)位(wei)于(yu)(yu)歷史低(di)位(wei)，冶煉(lian)企(qi)業盈利(li)(li)(li)能(neng)力下(xia)(xia)降，企(qi)業生產(chan)(chan)積極性(xing)不高(gao)(gao)影(ying)響。從產(chan)(chan)業實(shi)現(xian)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)數據上(shang)看，2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)1-8月(yue)中國冶煉(lian)企(qi)業實(shi)現(xian)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)16.6億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降62%。鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)采選實(shi)現(xian)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)受價(jia)(jia)格仍(reng)位(wei)于(yu)(yu)相對高(gao)(gao)位(wei)運行影(ying)響，實(shi)現(xian)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)仍(reng)有增(zeng)長，但(dan)增(zeng)幅有所下(xia)(xia)降。2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)1-8月(yue)實(shi)現(xian)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)122.0億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長11.5%。價(jia)(jia)格方面，2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)金屬(shu)價(jia)(jia)格重心(xin)有所下(xia)(xia)移，但(dan)仍(reng)位(wei)于(yu)(yu)相對高(gao)(gao)位(wei)運行。9月(yue)鉛(qian)國內(nei)現(xian)貨均價(jia)(jia)18966元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲4.2%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)6.8%。滬(hu)鋅(xin)(xin)主力合約月(yue)均價(jia)(jia)21090元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲0.4%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降15.8%。

四是產(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)動力(li)不(bu)足(zu)。中(zhong)(zhong)國鉛(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)受(shou)鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)。2018年(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1330千伏(fu)安時；1-8月中(zhong)(zhong)國累(lei)計鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)14630.8千伏(fu)安時，同比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降27.2%。鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)受(shou)鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業發展(zhan)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)，2018年(nian)鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)受(shou)鋼鐵去(qu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能行(xing)動影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)，同比(bi)有(you)所下(xia)(xia)降，2018年(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)460萬(wan)噸；1-8月中(zhong)(zhong)國鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)3298.7萬(wan)噸，同比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降26.2%。終(zhong)端消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)領域，汽車、冰箱、洗衣機等產(chan)(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)雖然同比(bi)仍有(you)增(zeng)長(chang)，但增(zeng)速有(you)所下(xia)(xia)降。鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)動力(li)整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)不(bu)足(zu)。

從2018年四季(ji)度鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)業(ye)發展趨(qu)勢上看，鉛鋅(xin)精(jing)礦供應(ying)緊張局面難以發生(sheng)(sheng)根本性好轉，再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)金屬產(chan)量依然(ran)能夠保持穩步(bu)增長(chang)，終端消費進入(ru)傳統(tong)消費旺季(ji)或將(jiang)有所(suo)提(ti)振(zhen)，因(yin)而初步(bu)預(yu)計未來(lai)鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)業(ye)景(jing)氣指(zhi)數(shu)仍將(jiang)位于(yu)“正(zheng)常”區間運行(xing)。（馬駿 執筆）

附注：

1、鉛鋅產業景氣先行合成指數（簡稱：先行指數）用于判斷鉛鋅產業經濟運行的近期變化趨勢。該指數由以下6項指標構成：LME鉛鋅價格指數、M2、鉛酸蓄電池、鍍鋅板、鉛鋅礦進口量指數、固定資產投資指數。

2、鉛鋅產業一致合成指標（簡稱：一致指數）反映當前鉛鋅產業經濟的運行狀況。該指數由以下3項指標構成：生產指數、主營業務收入指數、利潤總額指數。

3、鉛鋅產業滯后合成指標（簡稱：滯后指數）與一致指數一起主要用來監測經濟變動的趨勢，起到事后驗證的作用。該指數由以下3項指標構成：流動資本余額、應收賬款總額、產成品余額。

4、綜合景氣指數反映當前鉛鋅產業發展景氣程度。景氣燈號圖把鉛鋅產業經濟運行狀態分為5個級別，“紅燈”表示經濟過熱，“黃燈”表示經濟偏熱，“綠燈”表示經濟運行正常，“淺藍燈”表示經濟偏冷，“藍燈”表示經濟過冷。對單項指標燈號賦予不同的權重，將其匯總而成的綜合景氣指數也同樣由5個燈區顯示。

綜合景氣指數由9項指標構成，即先行指數和一致指數的構成指標。

5、編制指數所用各項指標均經過季節調整，已剔除季節因素。

6、每月都將對以前的月度景氣指數進行修訂。當時間序列加入最新的一個月的數據后，以往月度景氣指數會或多或少地發生變化，這是模型自動修正的結果。

7、生產指數，包括國內生產鉛、鋅精礦金屬含量、精煉鉛、鋅產量。進口量指數，包括進口鉛、鋅精礦含鉛、鋅量、進口精煉鉛、鋅金屬量。

【責任編輯：李瑛】