免费菠萝视频app下载

2018年(nian)9月(yue)(yue)，中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業月(yue)(yue)度景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)39.6，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升0.5個點；先行合成指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)65.3，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升1.6個點；一致合成指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)69.0，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升1.3個點（近13個月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業月(yue)(yue)度景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)如表(biao)1所(suo)示）。中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業月(yue)(yue)度景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)監測結果顯示，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業景(jing)氣(qi)(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)持續(xu)位于“正常(chang)”區間運行。

表(biao)1  2017年(nian)9月至2018年(nian)9月中色(se)鉛鋅(xin)產業月度景氣指(zhi)數

1、景氣指數位于“正常”區間并有所回升

中(zhong)色(se)(se)鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業月度(du)景氣指(zhi)(zhi)數顯(xian)示，2018年9月景氣指(zhi)(zhi)數為39.6，較(jiao)上月上升0.5個點，目前(qian)景氣指(zhi)(zhi)數持續位(wei)于“正常”區(qu)間運行。中(zhong)色(se)(se)鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業月度(du)景氣指(zhi)(zhi)數趨勢如圖1所示。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖1  中(zhong)色鉛鋅(xin)產業景氣指數趨勢圖

從(cong)中(zhong)色鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產(chan)(chan)業月(yue)度景氣信號燈可見(jian)（見(jian)圖(tu)2），2018年9月(yue)，在構成(cheng)中(zhong)色鉛(qian)(qian)鋅產(chan)(chan)業月(yue)度景氣指數(shu)的9個指標中(zhong):鉛(qian)(qian)鋅價格指數(shu)、M2、鉛(qian)(qian)鋅礦進口量、固定資產(chan)(chan)投資、生產(chan)(chan)指數(shu)、主營業務收入、利潤(run)總額位(wei)于(yu)“正常”區(qu)間；鉛(qian)(qian)酸蓄電池、鍍鋅板(ban)位(wei)于(yu)“偏(pian)冷(leng)”區(qu)間。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖(tu)2  中色(se)鉛鋅產業景氣(qi)信號燈圖(tu)

2、先行合成指有所回升

2018年9月(yue)(yue)，中(zhong)色鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業先行合成指數為65.3，較上月(yue)(yue)上升1.6個點（見(jian)圖3）。

在構成(cheng)中(zhong)色鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)產(chan)業先行(xing)合(he)成(cheng)指數的(de)6個指標(biao)中(zhong)4漲2降(jiang)。其中(zhong)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)的(de)4個指標(biao)中(zhong)，LME鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)價格(ge)指數同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)1.0%、M2同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)8.6%、鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)礦進口量指數同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)59.1%、固定資產(chan)投資同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)16.5%。同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)的(de)2個指標(biao)中(zhong)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電池（千伏安時）同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)21.8%、鍍鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)板同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)11.5%。

圖(tu)3  中色鉛鋅產業合成指數(shu)曲線圖(tu)

3、產業運行特點

2018年前三(san)季度，鉛(qian)鋅產(chan)業(ye)除冶煉環節生產(chan)經營(ying)壓(ya)力偏大外，整體能(neng)夠保持(chi)平穩運行。產(chan)業(ye)運行狀(zhuang)況呈現如下四(si)方面特(te)點：

一是環(huan)(huan)保壓力持續增(zeng)大(da)，企業(ye)環(huan)(huan)保成本(ben)剛性(xing)上(shang)漲。2018年藍天保衛戰重點(dian)區域在原(yuan)有(you)2+26城市基礎(chu)上(shang)，新增(zeng)汾渭平(ping)原(yuan)11城市。清廢(fei)行(xing)動2018，涉及(ji)長江經濟帶11省(sheng)市。在環(huan)(huan)保標準、執(zhi)法力度(du)不(bu)斷(duan)增(zeng)強的大(da)背(bei)景(jing)下，環(huan)(huan)保重點(dian)省(sheng)市不(bu)斷(duan)增(zeng)多，涉及(ji)鉛鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)不(bu)斷(duan)擴大(da)。從(cong)長江經濟帶內鉛鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)占比(bi)看，該流域涉及(ji)鉛冶煉產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)占全國總產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)比(bi)例60%，再生(sheng)鉛產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)占比(bi)80%，鋅(xin)(xin)冶煉產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)占比(bi)50%。大(da)氣污染重點(dian)區域內，河(he)南省(sheng)為鉛冶煉生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)大(da)省(sheng)，河(he)北省(sheng)為鍍鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)大(da)省(sheng)。因而上(shang)述區域內鉛鋅(xin)(xin)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)企業(ye)能(neng)否達標穩定運行(xing)，將直接影響(xiang)鉛鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)平(ping)穩健康發展。從(cong)環(huan)(huan)保政策影響(xiang)上(shang)看，行(xing)業(ye)企業(ye)紛(fen)紛(fen)加大(da)環(huan)(huan)保投資，加強環(huan)(huan)保設施建(jian)設，企業(ye)環(huan)(huan)保成本(ben)剛性(xing)上(shang)漲。

二是鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)建設有(you)(you)(you)所分(fen)化，鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)利用率相(xiang)對較高。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)原生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉企(qi)業(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)利用率普(pu)遍高于再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉企(qi)業(ye)(ye)。但受再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)盈利能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力增強及未來再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)占比(bi)將不斷增大影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，原生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉企(qi)業(ye)(ye)紛(fen)紛(fen)擴(kuo)大原有(you)(you)(you)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)受生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)者責任延(yan)伸制度(du)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，紛(fen)紛(fen)通過(guo)并購再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)、新(xin)建再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的方式延(yan)伸產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)布局，再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)建設投(tou)資偏熱。從初步統(tong)計數據看，中國(guo)年產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)廢(fei)舊(jiu)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池500萬噸(dun)，現有(you)(you)(you)廢(fei)舊(jiu)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池拆解能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力700萬噸(dun)，未來仍(reng)有(you)(you)(you)200-300萬噸(dun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)在建，再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)面(mian)臨(lin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)過(guo)剩風險(xian)。鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)建設方面(mian)，再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占比(bi)相(xiang)對較低(di)，原生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鋅(xin)冶(ye)煉新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)以原有(you)(you)(you)冶(ye)煉企(qi)業(ye)(ye)擴(kuo)建及礦(kuang)山配套冶(ye)煉項目為主，總體新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)有(you)(you)(you)限，實際投(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)規模(mo)受環(huan)保政策影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)有(you)(you)(you)待(dai)觀察。鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)利用率位于合理區間。

三是精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)依然(ran)(ran)偏緊(jin)，冶(ye)煉(lian)經(jing)營壓力偏大。受環保行動導致不(bu)合規小型礦(kuang)山關停及新投產(chan)(chan)礦(kuang)山產(chan)(chan)能有限影(ying)響，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)。2018年(nian)(nian)8月(yue)(yue)，中國(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)10.0萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；1-8月(yue)(yue)份(fen)，中國(guo)累計鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)79.1萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)9.6%；2018年(nian)(nian)8月(yue)(yue)，中國(guo)鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)23.5萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；1-8月(yue)(yue)鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)累計產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)178.0萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)8.1%，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)依然(ran)(ran)偏緊(jin)。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅金屬產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面(mian)，精(jing)(jing)(jing)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)有所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，其(qi)中再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)10.6%，高(gao)于原生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.2個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)，再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)對(dui)精(jing)(jing)(jing)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)貢獻(xian)較大。精(jing)(jing)(jing)鋅產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面(mian)，2018年(nian)(nian)8月(yue)(yue)，中國(guo)精(jing)(jing)(jing)鋅產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)43.1萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；1-8月(yue)(yue)份(fen)精(jing)(jing)(jing)鋅累計產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)369.5萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)1.4%。精(jing)(jing)(jing)鋅產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)除受鋅精(jing)(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)緊(jin)張(zhang)影(ying)響外，也受到冶(ye)煉(lian)加工費位于歷(li)史低位，冶(ye)煉(lian)企(qi)業盈利(li)能力下(xia)降(jiang)，企(qi)業生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)積極(ji)性不(bu)高(gao)影(ying)響。從產(chan)(chan)業實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)利(li)潤(run)(run)(run)數據上(shang)看，2018年(nian)(nian)1-8月(yue)(yue)中國(guo)冶(ye)煉(lian)企(qi)業實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)利(li)潤(run)(run)(run)16.6億元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)62%。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅采(cai)選實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)利(li)潤(run)(run)(run)受價(jia)(jia)格仍位于相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)高(gao)位運行影(ying)響，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)利(li)潤(run)(run)(run)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)仍有增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，但增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅有所下(xia)降(jiang)。2018年(nian)(nian)1-8月(yue)(yue)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)利(li)潤(run)(run)(run)122.0億元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)11.5%。價(jia)(jia)格方(fang)面(mian)，2018年(nian)(nian)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅金屬價(jia)(jia)格重心(xin)有所下(xia)移，但仍位于相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)高(gao)位運行。9月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)國(guo)內現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨均價(jia)(jia)18966元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)4.2%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)跌6.8%。滬鋅主力合約月(yue)(yue)均價(jia)(jia)21090元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)0.4%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)15.8%。

四是產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)整體動(dong)力(li)不足。中(zhong)國鉛產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)受(shou)鉛酸蓄(xu)電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)影(ying)響(xiang)。2018年(nian)(nian)8月(yue)，中(zhong)國鉛酸蓄(xu)電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)1330千(qian)伏(fu)安(an)時；1-8月(yue)中(zhong)國累計鉛酸蓄(xu)電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)14630.8千(qian)伏(fu)安(an)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比下降27.2%。鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)受(shou)鍍(du)(du)鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業發(fa)展影(ying)響(xiang)，2018年(nian)(nian)鍍(du)(du)鋅板產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)受(shou)鋼(gang)鐵去產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能行動(dong)影(ying)響(xiang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比有(you)所下降，2018年(nian)(nian)8月(yue)，中(zhong)國鍍(du)(du)鋅板產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)460萬噸(dun)；1-8月(yue)中(zhong)國鍍(du)(du)鋅板累計產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)3298.7萬噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比下降26.2%。終端消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)領域，汽車、冰箱、洗衣機(ji)等產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)雖然同(tong)(tong)(tong)比仍有(you)增長，但(dan)增速有(you)所下降。鉛鋅產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)動(dong)力(li)整體不足。

從2018年四季度鉛鋅(xin)產業發展(zhan)趨勢(shi)上看(kan)，鉛鋅(xin)精礦供應(ying)緊張局面難以發生根本性好轉(zhuan)，再生金屬產量依然能夠保持穩步(bu)增(zeng)長，終端消費進入傳統消費旺季或將(jiang)有所提振，因而初(chu)步(bu)預計未來鉛鋅(xin)產業景氣指數仍將(jiang)位于“正常”區間運行(xing)。（馬駿 執筆）

附注：

1、鉛鋅產業景氣先行合成指數（簡稱：先行指數）用于判斷鉛鋅產業經濟運行的近期變化趨勢。該指數由以下6項指標構成：LME鉛鋅價格指數、M2、鉛酸蓄電池、鍍鋅板、鉛鋅礦進口量指數、固定資產投資指數。

2、鉛鋅產業一致合成指標（簡稱：一致指數）反映當前鉛鋅產業經濟的運行狀況。該指數由以下3項指標構成：生產指數、主營業務收入指數、利潤總額指數。

3、鉛鋅產業滯后合成指標（簡稱：滯后指數）與一致指數一起主要用來監測經濟變動的趨勢，起到事后驗證的作用。該指數由以下3項指標構成：流動資本余額、應收賬款總額、產成品余額。

4、綜合景氣指數反映當前鉛鋅產業發展景氣程度。景氣燈號圖把鉛鋅產業經濟運行狀態分為5個級別，“紅燈”表示經濟過熱，“黃燈”表示經濟偏熱，“綠燈”表示經濟運行正常，“淺藍燈”表示經濟偏冷，“藍燈”表示經濟過冷。對單項指標燈號賦予不同的權重，將其匯總而成的綜合景氣指數也同樣由5個燈區顯示。

綜合景氣指數由9項指標構成，即先行指數和一致指數的構成指標。

5、編制指數所用各項指標均經過季節調整，已剔除季節因素。

6、每月都將對以前的月度景氣指數進行修訂。當時間序列加入最新的一個月的數據后，以往月度景氣指數會或多或少地發生變化，這是模型自動修正的結果。

7、生產指數，包括國內生產鉛、鋅精礦金屬含量、精煉鉛、鋅產量。進口量指數，包括進口鉛、鋅精礦含鉛、鋅量、進口精煉鉛、鋅金屬量。

【責任編輯：李瑛】