發布時間：2016-04-21
隨著我國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)社(she)會發(fa)展逐(zhu)漸(jian)步(bu)入(ru)新(xin)常態，電力(li)(li)(li)消費增速(su)相應呈現(xian)換擋態勢。2014年，我國(guo)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用電量同比增長3.8%，為近(jin)年來新(xin)低。特別是(shi)由于當前(qian)(qian)經(jing)濟(ji)下行壓力(li)(li)(li)較大，一些業界人士(shi)對(dui)(dui)未來十年電力(li)(li)(li)工業發(fa)展前(qian)(qian)景心懷隱(yin)憂，對(dui)(dui)電力(li)(li)(li)投資空間(jian)是(shi)否廣闊存有(you)疑(yi)慮。我們(men)認為，對(dui)(dui)電力(li)(li)(li)發(fa)展空間(jian)和態勢的判(pan)斷，必須歷史(shi)地(di)、具體地(di)分析，既(ji)要縱觀世界主要國(guo)家工業化過程中電力(li)(li)(li)工業發(fa)展普遍規(gui)律，又要考(kao)慮我國(guo)全(quan)(quan)面建成小(xiao)康社(she)會歷史(shi)進程的現(xian)實需要。可以判(pan)斷，今后五年我國(guo)電力(li)(li)(li)工業將進入(ru)提質增效、科學發(fa)展的關鍵時期，未來的發(fa)展動力(li)(li)(li)依(yi)然強勁，投資前(qian)(qian)景仍很(hen)廣闊。
一、“十三五”電力需求研判
黨的(de)十(shi)八大(da)以來(lai)，習近平總(zong)書記提出了“四個(ge)全面(mian)”的(de)戰略布局(ju)，將(jiang)全面(mian)建(jian)成(cheng)小(xiao)康社會定位為“實(shi)現(xian)中華民(min)族偉(wei)大(da)復興(xing)中國(guo)夢的(de)關鍵一步”。我國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)總(zong)量已于(yu)“十(shi)一五”末超過(guo)日本，成(cheng)為僅次于(yu)美(mei)國(guo)的(de)世界(jie)第二(er)大(da)經(jing)濟(ji)體。近年(nian)來(lai)我國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)在“新常態”下保持平穩運行，經(jing)濟(ji)結構調整(zheng)出現(xian)積極(ji)變化，全面(mian)建(jian)成(cheng)小(xiao)康社會的(de)物質基礎得到進一步夯實(shi)。未來(lai)電力、能源工業(ye)要為全面(mian)建(jian)成(cheng)小(xiao)康社會提供堅實(shi)保障(zhang)和充足動力。
按(an)照2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全面建成小康社會的要(yao)求，2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)總(zong)值要(yao)實(shi)現在2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)基礎(chu)上(shang)翻一(yi)番，達到13萬億美(mei)元（2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)價，下同(tong)），人均GDP要(yao)由2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的6400美(mei)元提高(gao)到10000美(mei)元左右(you)(you)(you)，2014-2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)總(zong)值年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均增速(su)將(jiang)保持在7%左右(you)(you)(you)。根(gen)據(ju)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家城(cheng)鎮化發展規(gui)劃，我國(guo)(guo)(guo)常住(zhu)人口城(cheng)鎮化率將(jiang)由2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的54.8%提高(gao)到2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的60%左右(you)(you)(you)，平均一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增加約一(yi)個百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。與此同(tong)時，產(chan)業(ye)結構調整(zheng)將(jiang)繼續深化，據(ju)有關機構預測，一(yi)、二、三次(ci)產(chan)業(ye)比重將(jiang)由2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的9:43:48調整(zheng)為2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的8:39:53，其中二產(chan)業(ye)下降(jiang)4個百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)，三產(chan)業(ye)上(shang)升(sheng)5個百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。
回顧世界主要發達國家的發展歷(li)程，根據有(you)(you)關經(jing)濟、電(dian)力(li)歷(li)史數(shu)據資(zi)料分(fen)析，受不同的工(gong)業化道路、城鎮(zhen)化進程、產業結構、發展水(shui)平、用能習慣等因素(su)影響，各(ge)個國家電(dian)力(li)增速有(you)(you)高低、快慢的差別。但總體來看，在與我(wo)國”十三五(wu)”期間相(xiang)類似(si)的發展階段中(zhong)，各(ge)國電(dian)力(li)增速和(he)電(dian)力(li)彈性系數(shu)總體保持在較(jiao)高的水(shui)平上。美國、日本(ben)、韓國是(shi)發達國家中(zhong)的“老、中(zhong)、青”典型，其發展歷(li)程具有(you)(you)較(jiao)強的代表性。
從經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)和城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平的(de)(de)視角來(lai)看：美(mei)國作為(wei)(wei)老牌的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)達國家(jia)(jia)，經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)相對超前(qian)于(yu)(yu)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)（與我(wo)國相比較而言，下同(tong)），美(mei)國1940年(nian)人(ren)(ren)均(jun)(jun)(jun)GDP已(yi)經達到(dao)10000美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，1940-1950年(nian)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)率由56.5%提(ti)高至64%（相當于(yu)(yu)我(wo)國未(wei)來(lai)十(shi)年(nian)的(de)(de)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進程(cheng)），1930-1940年(nian)、1940-1950年(nian)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)增速(su)分別(bie)為(wei)(wei)5.3%和7.2%，電(dian)力彈性系(xi)數(shu)分別(bie)為(wei)(wei)1.9、1.3。日本作為(wei)(wei)“二戰”以后迅(xun)速(su)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)起來(lai)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)達國家(jia)(jia)，1955-1963年(nian)處于(yu)(yu)工業化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)中后期，經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)水平（人(ren)(ren)均(jun)(jun)(jun)GDP）、城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進程(cheng)與我(wo)國未(wei)來(lai)十(shi)年(nian)相似，人(ren)(ren)均(jun)(jun)(jun)GDP由6000美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)提(ti)高至10600美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)時城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)率也(ye)由56%提(ti)高至66%，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)增速(su)高達11.5%，電(dian)力彈性系(xi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)1.4。韓國作為(wei)(wei)新(xin)興(xing)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)達國家(jia)(jia)，城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)相對超前(qian)于(yu)(yu)經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，1979-1985年(nian)，韓國城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)率由55%快速(su)提(ti)升至65%，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)增速(su)為(wei)(wei)8.8%，電(dian)力彈性系(xi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)1.4。1986-1993年(nian)，人(ren)(ren)均(jun)(jun)(jun)GDP由6300美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)提(ti)高至10400美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)增速(su)為(wei)(wei)12.2%，電(dian)力彈性系(xi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)1.5。
從人(ren)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)用電(dian)(dian)水平的視(shi)角來看：2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)我國(guo)人(ren)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)已突(tu)破(po)4000千瓦時(shi)，相當(dang)于1961年(nian)(nian)(nian)的美(mei)國(guo)、1973年(nian)(nian)(nian)日本和(he)1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)的韓國(guo)。美(mei)國(guo)1961-1966年(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)(wei)(wei)5.8%，用電(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)約為(wei)(wei)(wei)7.5%，單(dan)位(wei)(wei)GDP電(dian)(dian)耗為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.23-0.25千瓦時(shi)/美(mei)元并保持(chi)微增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)，電(dian)(dian)力彈性系(xi)(xi)數為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.3。日本1973-1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)(wei)(wei)3.1%，用電(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)約為(wei)(wei)(wei)3.6%，單(dan)位(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)耗為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.18-0.19千瓦時(shi)/美(mei)元并保持(chi)微增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)，電(dian)(dian)力彈性系(xi)(xi)數為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.2。韓國(guo)1996-2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)的GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)(wei)(wei)3.8%，用電(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)約為(wei)(wei)(wei)8.9%，單(dan)位(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)耗逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加，由0.33提高到0.43千瓦時(shi)/美(mei)元，電(dian)(dian)力彈性系(xi)(xi)數為(wei)(wei)(wei)2.3。
我國(guo)(guo)(guo)是“后發(fa)”的(de)(de)工(gong)業化(hua)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，應(ying)(ying)在吸取(qu)他國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)驗的(de)(de)基(ji)礎上，立足國(guo)(guo)(guo)情做好謀劃(hua)、科(ke)學發(fa)展(zhan)。當前我國(guo)(guo)(guo)單(dan)位(wei)GDP電(dian)耗0.63千瓦時(shi)(shi)/美元，遠高于發(fa)達國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，是美國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)2.4倍(bei)(bei)、日本的(de)(de)3.5倍(bei)(bei)、韓國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)1.4倍(bei)(bei)，具備較大的(de)(de)下降(jiang)潛力。我國(guo)(guo)(guo)政府已經(jing)提(ti)出了“中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)制造2025”、“互聯(lian)網+”等一系列戰略舉措支持經(jing)濟轉型升級(ji)，隨著產業結構調整成效逐步顯現(xian)，單(dan)位(wei)電(dian)耗將(jiang)呈現(xian)下降(jiang)趨勢。但應(ying)(ying)該指出，作為一個(ge)經(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)處(chu)于快(kuai)(kuai)速增(zeng)(zeng)長期(qi)(qi)、發(fa)展(zhan)不(bu)(bu)平衡的(de)(de)大國(guo)(guo)(guo)，扭轉經(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)慣性、推(tui)動經(jing)濟轉型升級(ji)需(xu)要時(shi)(shi)間(jian)和空間(jian)來循(xun)序、梯(ti)次推(tui)進，因而單(dan)位(wei)電(dian)耗下降(jiang)將(jiang)是一個(ge)漸進的(de)(de)過程，不(bu)(bu)可能一蹴而就。“十三五”期(qi)(qi)間(jian)，要實現(xian)經(jing)濟平穩較快(kuai)(kuai)增(zeng)(zeng)長，客觀(guan)上要求電(dian)力增(zeng)(zeng)速不(bu)(bu)能換擋過猛、減速太快(kuai)(kuai)。
綜合測算表明，“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五”期(qi)間(jian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力增(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)將(jiang)較“十(shi)(shi)五”、“十(shi)(shi)一(yi)五”期(qi)兩位(wei)數的(de)增(zeng)長(chang)將(jiang)有所下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，由高速(su)(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)長(chang)轉為中(zhong)速(su)(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)長(chang)，我(wo)們將(jiang)以低于1的(de)彈性(xing)系數、適中(zhong)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力增(zeng)長(chang)速(su)(su)(su)(su)度(du)支(zhi)撐我(wo)國經濟(ji)較快增(zeng)長(chang)。從目(mu)前至2020年(nian)(nian)，實現(xian)“全(quan)面建(jian)成小(xiao)康社(she)會”的(de)目(mu)標，全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)年(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)5.5%-6.5%，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈性(xing)系數介于0.8-1區間(jian)內，2020年(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)到7.6-8萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，人(ren)均(jun)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)達(da)(da)到5500-5700千瓦時(shi)，用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)結(jie)構中(zhong)二產(chan)業用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占比(bi)由74%下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)至70%左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，三(san)產(chan)業和居民生活用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占比(bi)由24%提高至28%左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。2020年(nian)(nian)之后，我(wo)們將(jiang)站在全(quan)面小(xiao)康的(de)新(xin)起點上向實現(xian)“中(zhong)等發達(da)(da)”的(de)長(chang)期(qi)目(mu)標穩步邁進(jin)。展望到2030年(nian)(nian)，我(wo)國全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)達(da)(da)到10-11萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，人(ren)均(jun)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)約為7000~8000千瓦時(shi)，期(qi)間(jian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)進(jin)一(yi)步下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)結(jie)構中(zhong)二產(chan)業用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占比(bi)繼續下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，三(san)產(chan)業和居民生活用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占比(bi)繼續提升。
二、“十三五”電源發展前景
中央財經(jing)領(ling)導小(xiao)組(zu)第六(liu)次(ci)會(hui)議的(de)(de)召開，標志(zhi)著我國在全面(mian)建成小(xiao)康(kang)社會(hui)的(de)(de)征程中，進入到能(neng)源(yuan)生(sheng)產(chan)和(he)消費革命(ming)的(de)(de)新(xin)階(jie)段(duan)。按照能(neng)源(yuan)革命(ming)的(de)(de)總體要(yao)(yao)求，要(yao)(yao)加快電(dian)(dian)(dian)力結構(gou)優化(hua)調(diao)整(zheng)，實施非(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發展和(he)化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)高(gao)效清潔利用(yong)并舉(ju)，形成水電(dian)(dian)(dian)、可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)等各類電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)協調(diao)發展、多(duo)輪驅動的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力生(sheng)產(chan)和(he)供應體系。既要(yao)(yao)注(zhu)重整(zheng)體的(de)(de)結構(gou)調(diao)整(zheng)，又(you)要(yao)(yao)充(chong)分(fen)挖(wa)掘每個(ge)品種(zhong)的(de)(de)優化(hua)潛力。
截至2014年(nian)底(di)，我(wo)國發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總容量達到(dao)13.6億千(qian)瓦(wa)，其中煤電(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)等化石能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)占約(yue)2/3，水電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)等非化石能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)占約(yue)1/3。初步(bu)測算(suan)2020年(nian)我(wo)國發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總需(xu)求約(yue)20億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)，2015-2020年(nian)約(yue)需(xu)新增6.5億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)。展望到(dao)2030年(nian)，電(dian)(dian)源裝(zhuang)機(ji)總需(xu)求約(yue)28億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)。未來電(dian)(dian)源發(fa)(fa)展要綜合考慮開發(fa)(fa)潛力、開發(fa)(fa)成(cheng)本、市場消納(na)、技術進步(bu)、環(huan)境(jing)社會(hui)影響等因(yin)素。
從資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)稟賦和(he)發展(zhan)潛力來看，各類電源(yuan)(yuan)都具(ju)有(you)較大發展(zhan)空間，特(te)別是非化石能源(yuan)(yuan)開發潛力相對較大。煤(mei)炭(tan)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)豐富，保(bao)有(you)儲量1.38萬億(yi)(yi)噸，按(an)未來煤(mei)炭(tan)產量及(ji)可(ke)供用(yong)(yong)于發電用(yong)(yong)煤(mei)量來估算，可(ke)支撐裝(zhuang)機(ji)15億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)以上。通(tong)過積極進口補充，遠景天然氣(qi)用(yong)(yong)于發電的資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)量可(ke)支撐氣(qi)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)2億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)以上。水能、風能、太(tai)陽能資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)豐富，其中常規水電技(ji)術可(ke)開發量約6.6億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)、待(dai)開發程度達(da)60%，據有(you)關機(ji)構(gou)測算風電、太(tai)陽能理論(lun)可(ke)支撐裝(zhuang)機(ji)均可(ke)達(da)到10億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)以上。通(tong)過國內(nei)開發、海外開發、國際貿易等多渠道(dao)并舉(ju)，未來核電開發有(you)較為(wei)充足的資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)保(bao)障。
另一方面(mian)，隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)的快速發展(zhan)，“十三五”電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)發展(zhan)的清(qing)潔化(hua)、低碳(tan)化(hua)水(shui)(shui)平將(jiang)明(ming)顯(xian)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，但(dan)(dan)總體(ti)發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本、整體(ti)電(dian)(dian)價水(shui)(shui)平將(jiang)呈現上(shang)(shang)(shang)升趨勢。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)清(qing)潔高(gao)(gao)效煤電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)的推(tui)廣應用，煤電(dian)(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)造(zao)(zao)價將(jiang)保(bao)持(chi)(chi)穩(wen)中有(you)升，考慮碳(tan)稅等外部(bu)成(cheng)(cheng)本內部(bu)化(hua)后發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本將(jiang)有(you)所(suo)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。氣(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)國(guo)產化(hua)有(you)利于工(gong)程(cheng)造(zao)(zao)價降低，但(dan)(dan)用氣(qi)(qi)價格上(shang)(shang)(shang)升將(jiang)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本。后續水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)大多遠離負荷(he)中心，要(yao)妥善處理好生(sheng)態(tai)保(bao)護、庫區移民、國(guo)際關系等問題，工(gong)程(cheng)造(zao)(zao)價、發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本、送出成(cheng)(cheng)本將(jiang)顯(xian)著(zhu)(zhu)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)核電(dian)(dian)安全(quan)標(biao)準(zhun)的不斷提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，核電(dian)(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)造(zao)(zao)價總體(ti)上(shang)(shang)(shang)保(bao)持(chi)(chi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升的趨勢。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)的規模化(hua)發展(zhan)和裝備技(ji)術(shu)的成(cheng)(cheng)熟，工(gong)程(cheng)造(zao)(zao)價將(jiang)會降低，但(dan)(dan)由于風電(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)具有(you)隨(sui)(sui)機性和波動性，需要(yao)通過加(jia)強系統(tong)調(diao)峰儲能(neng)能(neng)力建設(she)、健全(quan)輔助服務市(shi)場機制等手段來促進系統(tong)安全(quan)、穩(wen)定、經(jing)濟運行。
按(an)照(zhao)“優(you)先(xian)利用非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、按(an)需發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”的總(zong)體原則，要積極發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，安(an)全(quan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，大力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，優(you)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，清(qing)潔(jie)高效(xiao)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。初步測算，到2020年，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)(bi)約(yue)為(wei)4:6，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)較2014年提高約(yue)6個百分點。其中，水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)（含(han)抽水(shui)(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)）裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)達到3.9億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右，新增(zeng)9000萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右；核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)達到約(yue)5800萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，新增(zeng)約(yue)3800萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)；風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)達到3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右，新增(zeng)1.8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右；煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)達到12.2億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右，新增(zeng)3.3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右；其他發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)約(yue)3000萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右。展(zhan)望到2030年，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)將進(jin)一(yi)步上升，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)(bi)約(yue)為(wei)4.5:5.5。
三、“十三五”電力格局展望
能(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)稟(bing)賦及區域經濟發展決定了我國的能(neng)源(yuan)格局，電力格局要服(fu)從于(yu)能(neng)源(yuan)格局。總體來(lai)說，東北(bei)將(jiang)基本(ben)保(bao)持自平衡，華北(bei)主送(song)(song)華東，西北(bei)主送(song)(song)華中(zhong)，西藏主送(song)(song)華中(zhong)和南方。
從電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)布(bu)局(ju)來看，受能源(yuan)資源(yuan)、環(huan)境保護、市場(chang)消(xiao)納等(deng)(deng)(deng)因(yin)素影(ying)響，“十(shi)三(san)(san)(san)五(wu)(wu)(wu)”各(ge)類電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展應加強統籌、科學規(gui)(gui)劃，因(yin)時因(yin)地(di)(di)制(zhi)宜，不能盲目擴張(zhang)，也不能因(yin)噎廢食。隨著(zhu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)程度的(de)(de)不斷(duan)提高(gao)，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)“主戰(zhan)場(chang)”將(jiang)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步西(xi)移(yi)，“十(shi)三(san)(san)(san)五(wu)(wu)(wu)”新(xin)增水(shui)電(dian)(dian)將(jiang)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)在金(jin)沙江(jiang)、雅礱(long)江(jiang)、大(da)渡(du)河(he)、瀾滄江(jiang)等(deng)(deng)(deng)流域，2020年西(xi)南(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)規(gui)(gui)模將(jiang)達到1.8億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右，約(yue)占當年全國水(shui)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)的(de)(de)51%。核電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)必須堅持(chi)采用國際最高(gao)安全標(biao)準，確保安全運行，“十(shi)三(san)(san)(san)五(wu)(wu)(wu)”核電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)布(bu)局(ju)在山東(dong)、江(jiang)蘇(su)、浙江(jiang)、遼(liao)寧、福建、廣(guang)東(dong)、廣(guang)西(xi)、海南(nan)等(deng)(deng)(deng)沿海地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)沿海核電(dian)(dian)帶初步形成規(gui)(gui)模；遠期在充分論(lun)證的(de)(de)基(ji)礎上(shang)努力實現核電(dian)(dian)向內陸地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)穩妥推(tui)(tui)進(jin)。可再生能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)堅持(chi)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)、輸送、市場(chang)同步規(gui)(gui)劃，“十(shi)三(san)(san)(san)五(wu)(wu)(wu)”將(jiang)由集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)為主向集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)、分散開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)并舉轉(zhuan)變，其中(zhong)風電(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)布(bu)局(ju)在三(san)(san)(san)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)和東(dong)部(bu)(bu)沿海，重(zhong)點(dian)依托酒泉、哈密、蒙西(xi)、蒙東(dong)、冀(ji)北(bei)(bei)、吉林、黑龍(long)江(jiang)、山東(dong)、江(jiang)蘇(su)等(deng)(deng)(deng)9個(ge)(ge)基(ji)地(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)建設(she)；太陽能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)布(bu)局(ju)在新(xin)疆、青海等(deng)(deng)(deng)西(xi)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)；其他地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)風電(dian)(dian)和太陽能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)以分散開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)為主。煤電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)堅持(chi)高(gao)效、清潔，大(da)力推(tui)(tui)進(jin)高(gao)參數、大(da)容量(liang)清潔發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術的(de)(de)推(tui)(tui)廣(guang)和應用，“十(shi)三(san)(san)(san)五(wu)(wu)(wu)”重(zhong)點(dian)依托鄂爾多斯(si)、錫盟、晉(jin)(jin)北(bei)(bei)、晉(jin)(jin)中(zhong)、晉(jin)(jin)東(dong)、陜北(bei)(bei)、寧東(dong)、哈密、準東(dong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)9個(ge)(ge)煤電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)，建設(she)規(gui)(gui)模約(yue)1億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右；為滿足中(zhong)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)負荷發(fa)(fa)展需要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)，依托蒙華鐵路煤運通道等(deng)(deng)(deng)在中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)建設(she)一(yi)(yi)批煤電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組，在滿足等(deng)(deng)(deng)煤量(liang)（減煤量(liang)）控制(zhi)目標(biao)的(de)(de)前提下在東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)發(fa)(fa)展一(yi)(yi)定規(gui)(gui)模的(de)(de)超低排放煤電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組。
從電(dian)(dian)力流向來看，為滿足北(bei)方煤電(dian)(dian)、西(xi)南水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力送出和(he)京津(jin)冀魯、江(jiang)浙滬、廣東(dong)以及華中(zhong)東(dong)四(si)省等(deng)地(di)區受電(dian)(dian)需要，到2020年，我國將新(xin)(xin)增大氣污(wu)染(ran)防治行(xing)動(dong)計劃十二條輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)、酒(jiu)泉-湖南、準東(dong)-皖南、東(dong)北(bei)外送、四(si)川-華中(zhong)東(dong)四(si)省等(deng)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)，“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)東(dong)送”北(bei)、中(zhong)、南三(san)(san)個通(tong)道(dao)的(de)(de)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)規模仍將保持快速增長勢(shi)頭，由目(mu)前的(de)(de)1.3億千(qian)瓦提高至(zhi)2億千(qian)瓦左右。其中(zhong)，北(bei)通(tong)道(dao)將延(yan)續(xu)山(shan)西(xi)、內蒙古(gu)送電(dian)(dian)京津(jin)冀魯為主的(de)(de)格(ge)局，中(zhong)通(tong)道(dao)形(xing)成三(san)(san)峽、西(xi)南水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)與(yu)山(shan)西(xi)、蒙西(xi)、新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)并(bing)舉送華東(dong)、華中(zhong)的(de)(de)格(ge)局，南通(tong)道(dao)延(yan)續(xu)西(xi)南水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)、火(huo)電(dian)(dian)送廣東(dong)、廣西(xi)的(de)(de)格(ge)局。
四、“十三五”電力建設投資空間
“十三五”期間，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)電力工業將由規模擴張型發展向(xiang)質量(liang)效益型發展轉(zhuan)變(bian)，發展質量(liang)明顯提升(sheng)、結構(gou)更加優(you)化(hua)、科技含量(liang)顯著加強，電力建設和投(tou)資(zi)(zi)空(kong)間依(yi)然巨大(da)。盡管“十三五”期間電力增(zeng)速由高(gao)速轉(zhuan)為(wei)中速，但由于我(wo)(wo)國(guo)電源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機基數巨大(da)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)量(liang)裝(zhuang)機規模仍將創歷史新高(gao)。平均每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的新增(zeng)裝(zhuang)機約(yue)1.1億千瓦，相當于一個意(yi)大(da)利(li)或巴西，相當于我(wo)(wo)國(guo)1988年(nian)(nian)(nian)的總裝(zhuang)機。大(da)致匡算(suan)2015-2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)電源(yuan)項目投(tou)資(zi)(zi)需求約(yue)3.2萬億元左右，其中化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發電投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占(zhan)約(yue)40%，非化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發電投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占(zhan)約(yue)60%。
另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，國(guo)際電(dian)力(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)和(he)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)前(qian)景也(ye)十分廣闊。廣大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)興(xing)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)體將(jiang)是未來經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)(fa)展主要的(de)(de)(de)(de)“增(zeng)長極”，我(wo)(wo)們與新(xin)興(xing)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)體的(de)(de)(de)(de)互動和(he)共同發(fa)(fa)展將(jiang)創造(zao)出巨(ju)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)空(kong)(kong)間。“一(yi)帶一(yi)路(lu)”戰略(lve)從構想(xiang)步(bu)入實施(shi)(shi)階段后，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)將(jiang)加快形(xing)成全方(fang)位開放的(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)格局，為促進產業轉型(xing)升(sheng)級(ji)、紓(shu)解(jie)過剩產能(neng)、充(chong)分利用(yong)兩個市(shi)場和(he)兩種資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)提供(gong)難得的(de)(de)(de)(de)機(ji)(ji)(ji)遇。“加強(qiang)能(neng)源(yuan)基(ji)礎設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)互聯互通(tong)合(he)作”是“一(yi)帶一(yi)路(lu)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)作重點之(zhi)一(yi)。目(mu)前(qian)，全球有32個新(xin)興(xing)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)體的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)均裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)低于中(zhong)國(guo)，若使其人(ren)均裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)達到中(zhong)國(guo)水平(ping)，將(jiang)有約(yue)(yue)16.5億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)空(kong)(kong)間，按照平(ping)均單位造(zao)價約(yue)(yue)8000元/千(qian)瓦(wa)測(ce)算，投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)需(xu)求約(yue)(yue)13萬(wan)億(yi)元，需(xu)求最大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)印度裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)空(kong)(kong)間達7.5億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)需(xu)求約(yue)(yue)6萬(wan)億(yi)元。電(dian)力(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)需(xu)要巨(ju)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)、裝(zhuang)備、技術和(he)人(ren)才投(tou)(tou)入，我(wo)(wo)們可以(yi)充(chong)分發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)在(zai)電(dian)力(li)裝(zhuang)備制(zhi)造(zao)、工程建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)等(deng)方(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)領(ling)先優勢，同時借助亞洲基(ji)礎設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)銀行(xing)、絲路(lu)基(ji)金(jin)、金(jin)磚國(guo)家(jia)開發(fa)(fa)銀行(xing)等(deng)金(jin)融平(ping)臺有效解(jie)決電(dian)力(li)項目(mu)投(tou)(tou)融資(zi)(zi)難題，為促進新(xin)興(xing)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)體電(dian)力(li)基(ji)礎設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)持續(xu)、快速發(fa)(fa)展，打(da)造(zao)合(he)作共贏的(de)(de)(de)(de)“中(zhong)國(guo)+N命運共同體”作出積極貢獻。
電力(li)工業(ye)具有(you)資(zi)金密(mi)集(ji)、資(zi)源密(mi)集(ji)、技(ji)術密(mi)集(ji)以及(ji)項目建(jian)設周期(qi)長的特點(dian)，為避免(mian)電力(li)發(fa)展(zhan)的大起(qi)大落，電力(li)工業(ye)應適度超(chao)前于國(guo)民經濟(ji)和社會發(fa)展(zhan)。“十三五”期(qi)間既是全面建(jian)成小(xiao)康社會的攻堅階段(duan)，也是電力(li)工業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)的關(guan)鍵時期(qi)，電力(li)建(jian)設任務(wu)依(yi)然繁重。有(you)必(bi)要(yao)超(chao)前謀劃、合理安排，把握(wo)好(hao)發(fa)展(zhan)的節奏(zou)，更(geng)好(hao)地(di)滿足(zu)國(guo)民經濟(ji)和社會發(fa)展(zhan)需要(yao)。
五、結語
新(xin)一(yi)輪電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)體(ti)制改(gai)革大幕已經拉開(kai)，發(fa)展的(de)(de)動力(li)(li)(li)和活力(li)(li)(li)進一(yi)步迸發(fa)，改(gai)革紅利不斷釋放(fang)，我(wo)國電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)工業將進入新(xin)的(de)(de)戰(zhan)略機遇期。我(wo)們要把握發(fa)展大勢，做好科學規(gui)劃，抓住(zhu)投(tou)資(zi)機遇，搞好電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)建(jian)設，齊心(xin)協力(li)(li)(li)促(cu)進電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)工業科學發(fa)展，為全面建(jian)成小康(kang)社(she)會提(ti)供堅強有力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)支(zhi)撐。
（本文章摘自4月20日《中國(guo)能源報》。汪建(jian)平，中國(guo)能源建(jian)設(she)(she)集團(tuan)有限公司董事長、黨委(wei)書(shu)記，國(guo)家電(dian)力規(gui)劃研究中心(xin)主任(ren)。吳云，中國(guo)能源建(jian)設(she)(she)集團(tuan)有限公司總工程師，國(guo)家電(dian)力規(gui)劃研究中心(xin)常務副(fu)主任(ren)。）