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　　近(jin)期(qi)(qi)，受下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)補庫需求帶動，紗(sha)線銷(xiao)售(shou)情況略(lve)有好轉(zhuan)，純棉(mian)(mian)紗(sha)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)勢放緩；滌(di)棉(mian)(mian)紗(sha)銷(xiao)售(shou)雖有啟動，但庫存壓力較(jiao)大拖累(lei)了滌(di)短(duan)行情。盡管下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)市(shi)場(chang)出(chu)現回暖(nuan)跡象，紡(fang)織企(qi)業采購依然謹(jin)慎(shen)，前期(qi)(qi)惜售(shou)的棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)企(qi)業存棉(mian)(mian)信心不足(zu)，部分企(qi)業繼續下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)調現貨報(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)。4月(yue)22日，32支(zhi)純棉(mian)(mian)普梳紗(sha)報(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)36000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)100元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.3%；滌(di)綸短(duan)纖(xian)報(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)13850元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)100元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.7%。內地(di)(di)籽棉(mian)(mian)收購均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)5.76元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤(jin)（折皮棉(mian)(mian)收購價(jia)(jia)(jia)25960元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)），較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)0.1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤(jin)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)1.7%。代表內地(di)(di)標(biao)準(zhun)級(ji)皮棉(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)售(shou)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)的國(guo)家棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)B指數28775元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)653元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)2.2%；新疆(jiang)標(biao)準(zhun)級(ji)皮棉(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)售(shou)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)29567元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)612元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)2.0%。鄭州棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)期(qi)(qi)貨5月(yue)合(he)約(yue)結算(suan)價(jia)(jia)(jia)28240元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)265元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.9%；全國(guo)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)交(jiao)易市(shi)場(chang)電(dian)子撮(cuo)合(he)交(jiao)易5月(yue)合(he)同均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)27531元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)497元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)1.8%。

　　預(yu)計(ji)國(guo)內棉(mian)價(jia)仍(reng)將維持穩(wen)中(zhong)趨(qu)弱格(ge)局(ju)。首先，4月20日山東某大型紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)集團下調(diao)皮棉(mian)采購價(jia)500元(yuan)/噸，329級為(wei)(wei)27500元(yuan)/噸，429級為(wei)(wei)27200元(yuan)/噸，周邊小(xiao)型棉(mian)企(qi)交貨(huo)積(ji)極，表明當前部分企(qi)業落袋為(wei)(wei)安的(de)心態，或將刺激大型紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)企(qi)業進一步下調(diao)皮棉(mian)采購價(jia)；其次(ci)(ci)，近(jin)期(qi)紗線(xian)銷售雖好(hao)于(yu)前期(qi)，但紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)企(qi)業仍(reng)面臨較(jiao)大的(de)庫存(cun)壓(ya)力，加(jia)上近(jin)來(lai)人民(min)幣呈現加(jia)速(su)升值(zhi)勢(shi)頭，4月22日美元(yuan)兌人民(min)幣匯率為(wei)(wei)6.5156，再創匯改(gai)以來(lai)最(zui)高記錄(lu)，紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)內外銷形勢(shi)相當嚴峻；最(zui)后，央(yang)行4月21日開始上調(diao)金(jin)融機構人民(min)幣存(cun)款準備金(jin)率0.5個(ge)百分比(bi)，銀行存(cun)款準備金(jin)率達到20.5%的(de)歷史新高，近(jin)日舉行的(de)2011年經貿形勢(shi)報告會上，央(yang)行副行長胡曉煉再次(ci)(ci)傳達了監管(guan)層抗(kang)擊通脹的(de)決(jue)心。綜上，目前紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)下游(you)銷勢(shi)仍(reng)待回暖，產成(cheng)品(pin)庫存(cun)壓(ya)力猶在，資金(jin)周轉困難(nan)，現貨(huo)采購謹慎(shen)，預(yu)計(ji)國(guo)內棉(mian)價(jia)仍(reng)將穩(wen)中(zhong)趨(qu)弱。

　　受南半球新棉(mian)即將大(da)量上市和(he)紡(fang)織采購需(xu)求低迷影響，紐約(yue)期(qi)(qi)貨價(jia)(jia)格跌(die)(die)至兩個多月來低點(dian)。4月22日，紐約(yue)棉(mian)花期(qi)(qi)貨5月合約(yue)結(jie)算價(jia)(jia)186.67美(mei)分(fen)/磅，較上周下跌(die)(die)8.85美(mei)分(fen)/磅，跌(die)(die)幅4.5%。代表進口棉(mian)中(zhong)國主(zhu)港到岸均(jun)價(jia)(jia)的國際棉(mian)花指(zhi)數（M）按(an)1%關稅計(ji)算，折人(ren)民幣(bi)進口成(cheng)本34814元(yuan)/噸(dun)，較上周下跌(die)(die)1681元(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)幅4.6%；按(an)滑準稅計(ji)算，折人(ren)民幣(bi)進口成(cheng)本35043元(yuan)/噸(dun)，較上周下跌(die)(die)1665元(yuan)/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)幅4.5%。

　　美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯儲貨幣(bi)政策的(de)(de)寬松環(huan)境與(yu)歐洲央行緊(jin)縮(suo)政策周期形成鮮明對比(bi)，標(biao)準普爾公司4月18日調降美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)長期主權債務評(ping)級由“穩定”至“負面”，使市(shi)(shi)場焦點(dian)從歐元(yuan)區債務危機轉向美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)財政問題，導致美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)全線潰敗，美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)指數于4月21日最低(di)探(tan)至73.74，刷(shua)新金融危機以來最低(di)水平，為大宗(zong)商品再度走(zou)高提供動(dong)力(li)。然而，眼下(xia)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際棉(mian)價走(zou)勢更多(duo)受制于基本面因(yin)素。由于紡(fang)織采(cai)購(gou)需求(qiu)(qiu)乏(fa)力(li)，外棉(mian)訂(ding)單撤銷現象仍(reng)在發生，4月8-14日的(de)(de)美(mei)(mei)(mei)棉(mian)出口簽(qian)約量驟降至不足1萬(wan)噸，持續低(di)迷的(de)(de)需求(qiu)(qiu)或將(jiang)繼續壓制國(guo)(guo)(guo)際棉(mian)價走(zou)勢。值得注意的(de)(de)是，目前北(bei)半球產(chan)棉(mian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)陸續進入播種(zhong)季節，市(shi)(shi)場關(guan)注焦點(dian)開始轉向諸如美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)棉(mian)區較為嚴重的(de)(de)旱情上，未(wei)來天氣(qi)狀(zhuang)況對國(guo)(guo)(guo)際棉(mian)價走(zou)勢的(de)(de)影響(xiang)或將(jiang)凸(tu)顯。