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　　近期，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗銷售(shou)(shou)行情(qing)弱勢未改，紡(fang)織企業(ye)(ye)(ye)庫存(cun)壓力(li)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)，降價(jia)(jia)促(cu)銷企業(ye)(ye)(ye)增多，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗價(jia)(jia)格(ge)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)進一(yi)步擴大(da)；滌(di)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗銷售(shou)(shou)不濟(ji)拖累滌(di)短行情(qing)。紡(fang)織企業(ye)(ye)(ye)皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)采購(gou)(gou)積極性(xing)下(xia)(xia)降，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花企業(ye)(ye)(ye)對后市(shi)的看法出現分歧(qi)，但主流企業(ye)(ye)(ye)存(cun)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)成本較(jiao)(jiao)高且看好后市(shi)，不愿(yuan)大(da)幅(fu)(fu)降價(jia)(jia)銷售(shou)(shou)，市(shi)場(chang)陷(xian)入僵持，現貨價(jia)(jia)格(ge)穩中略跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)。3月(yue)25日，32支純棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)普梳紗報價(jia)(jia)37400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)1150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)3.0%；滌(di)綸短纖報價(jia)(jia)14650元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)1.0%。內地(di)籽棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收購(gou)(gou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)6.33元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤(jin)（折皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收購(gou)(gou)價(jia)(jia)28452元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸），較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)0.05元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤(jin)，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.8%。代表內地(di)標(biao)準級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷售(shou)(shou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)的國(guo)家棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花價(jia)(jia)格(ge)B指(zhi)數30643元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)38元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.1%；新疆標(biao)準級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷售(shou)(shou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)31062元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)29元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.1%。鄭州(zhou)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花期貨5月(yue)合(he)(he)(he)約結算價(jia)(jia)30430元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)145元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.5%；全國(guo)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花交易(yi)市(shi)場(chang)電子撮合(he)(he)(he)交易(yi)5月(yue)合(he)(he)(he)同(tong)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)30347元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)33元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)0.1%。

　　國(guo)內(nei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)趨(qu)于平穩使棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)企業(ye)恐(kong)慌心態有所改觀(guan)，高等(deng)級棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)格在資(zi)源稀少的(de)(de)(de)支(zhi)撐下逐漸企穩，但緊(jin)縮(suo)政策和紡(fang)織運行(xing)疲(pi)弱(ruo)仍將對近期棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)形成制約(yue)。主(zhu)要原因：一是(shi)3月25日起(qi)人(ren)民幣存款(kuan)準備金率(lv)上調0.5個百分點，央(yang)行(xing)副行(xing)長、國(guo)家外管局(ju)局(ju)長易綱(gang)表示(shi)，央(yang)行(xing)今(jin)年最主(zhu)要的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)作(zuo)就是(shi)對抗通脹(zhang)，維(wei)持物(wu)價(jia)穩定，所有可能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)政策工(gong)具，包括利率(lv)、匯率(lv)、存款(kuan)準備金率(lv)以及(ji)公開(kai)市(shi)場操作(zuo)等(deng)手(shou)段都在考慮之列。二是(shi)目前紡(fang)織企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗庫存壓力較(jiao)大，行(xing)情整(zheng)體弱(ruo)勢未改，資(zi)金實力相(xiang)對較(jiao)弱(ruo)的(de)(de)(de)中小(xiao)型紡(fang)企降(jiang)價(jia)促銷的(de)(de)(de)不在少數，短期皮棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)需求難以明顯釋放，現(xian)貨市(shi)場或將維(wei)持弱(ruo)勢僵持局(ju)面。綜上，預計(ji)近期棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)橫向整(zheng)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)性較(jiao)大。

　　日本(ben)核(he)泄(xie)露事件稍有(you)緩(huan)和，但利(li)比亞(ya)緊(jin)張(zhang)局勢(shi)繼續升級(ji)，大宗(zong)商品市場波動較(jiao)大，紐約(yue)棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)期(qi)貨(huo)劇烈振蕩，交(jiao)易(yi)重心略有(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)移，國際現貨(huo)價格在美棉(mian)銷售好轉的助推下大幅上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)。3月25日，紐約(yue)棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)期(qi)貨(huo)5月合(he)約(yue)結算價204.49美分(fen)/磅(bang)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)5.37美分(fen)/磅(bang)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅2.7%。代表進口棉(mian)中(zhong)國主港到岸均價的國際棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)指(zhi)數（M）按(an)1%關稅計算，折(zhe)(zhe)人民幣進口成本(ben)39868元(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)2435元(yuan)/噸(dun)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅6.5%；按(an)滑準稅計算，折(zhe)(zhe)人民幣進口成本(ben)40047元(yuan)/噸(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)2411元(yuan)/噸(dun)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅6.4%。

　　從基本(ben)面(mian)和(he)外圍環境分析，近期國(guo)際市場(chang)多空交(jiao)織，行(xing)情難改振蕩走(zou)勢。基本(ben)面(mian)，據(ju)美(mei)國(guo)農(nong)業(ye)部(bu)（USDA）公(gong)布的(de)數據(ju)，3月(yue)11-17日的(de)美(mei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)出口簽約量(liang)(liang)和(he)裝運量(liang)(liang)大幅(fu)(fu)上升，說明(ming)市場(chang)需求仍然旺盛。不(bu)過(guo)(guo)，南半球棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花豐(feng)產(chan)在望(wang)，中期供給充裕，不(bu)利(li)(li)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)價繼續走(zou)高。據(ju)巴(ba)西(xi)農(nong)業(ye)部(bu)的(de)最新預測，本(ben)年度巴(ba)西(xi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花實播面(mian)積1950萬(wan)畝，單產(chan)有(you)望(wang)達到(dao)100公(gong)斤/畝，總產(chan)量(liang)(liang)195萬(wan)噸，同比(bi)增幅(fu)(fu)超過(guo)(guo)60%；澳大利(li)(li)亞(ya)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區天氣(qi)轉晴(qing)，收獲即將完成，預計(ji)本(ben)年度澳棉(mian)(mian)(mian)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)將創下歷(li)史(shi)最高紀錄(lu)，有(you)關方(fang)面(mian)預測其產(chan)量(liang)(liang)為98萬(wan)噸，同比(bi)增幅(fu)(fu)高達154%。目前(qian)，利(li)(li)比(bi)亞(ya)政局(ju)動蕩，大宗(zong)商品走(zou)勢不(bu)確定性(xing)較大，國(guo)際棉(mian)(mian)(mian)價將繼續維(wei)持振蕩格局(ju)的(de)可能(neng)性(xing)較大。