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　　近(jin)日，國際棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)波動幅(fu)度加大，國內(nei)下(xia)(xia)游紡織市場持(chi)續乏力(li)，企(qi)業(ye)產成品庫存壓力(li)有增無減，降價(jia)(jia)(jia)促銷(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)業(ye)增多，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)紗(sha)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)加大。大型(xing)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)企(qi)開(kai)始頻繁下(xia)(xia)調皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)采(cai)購價(jia)(jia)(jia)，國內(nei)現貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)格回落，市場成交(jiao)清淡。3月18日，32支純(chun)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)普梳紗(sha)報價(jia)(jia)(jia)38550元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)1.3%；滌綸短纖報價(jia)(jia)(jia)14800元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)100元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.7%。內(nei)地籽(zi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收購均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)6.38元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤（折皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收購價(jia)(jia)(jia)28717元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)），較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)0.05元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.8%。代表內(nei)地標(biao)準(zhun)級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)售均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)國家(jia)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格B指數30681元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)517元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)1.7%；新疆(jiang)標(biao)準(zhun)級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)售均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)31091元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)277元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.9%。鄭州(zhou)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)期貨5月合約結算(suan)價(jia)(jia)(jia)30575元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)925元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)2.9%；全(quan)國棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)交(jiao)易市場電(dian)子撮合交(jiao)易5月合同均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)30314元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)1007元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)3.2%。

　　從(cong)國(guo)家(jia)緊(jin)縮政策和市場基本面(mian)分析，短期(qi)(qi)國(guo)內棉價下行(xing)壓力較(jiao)大，主要原因：一是3月18日(ri)晚(wan)央行(xing)決定(ding)從(cong)3月25日(ri)起上調存(cun)(cun)款類(lei)金融機(ji)構(gou)人(ren)民幣存(cun)(cun)款準備(bei)金率(lv)0.5個百分點，針對(dui)日(ri)益嚴峻的通脹(zhang)形勢，預計后(hou)期(qi)(qi)國(guo)家(jia)的緊(jin)縮措(cuo)施亦會(hui)隨之(zhi)加大力度；二是盡(jin)管近期(qi)(qi)鄭棉期(qi)(qi)貨價格在大幅下挫后(hou)有所反彈，但60日(ri)線附近仍存(cun)(cun)在較(jiao)強阻力，短期(qi)(qi)回落概率(lv)較(jiao)大；三是時值(zhi)3月下旬，旺季不(bu)旺的特點在紡織行(xing)業(ye)顯露無(wu)疑，如果后(hou)期(qi)(qi)紡織企業(ye)產成品庫存(cun)(cun)壓力仍得不(bu)到有效緩解，不(bu)排除企業(ye)進(jin)一步下調皮棉采購價的可能。

　　國際棉(mian)(mian)價方面(mian)，3月(yue)14-18日(ri)(ri)當(dang)周(zhou)前期，日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)“核(he)危機”令全球金融市場遭受重(zhong)挫(cuo)，紐約棉(mian)(mian)花期貨價格連續3個交易日(ri)(ri)跌(die)(die)停(ting)，后期隨(sui)著日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)大規模注資及(ji)美(mei)(mei)元指(zhi)數(shu)持續下挫(cuo)，紐約棉(mian)(mian)花期貨市場重(zhong)新(xin)在買盤推動下反彈，但(dan)棉(mian)(mian)價重(zhong)心繼(ji)續下移。3月(yue)18日(ri)(ri)，紐約棉(mian)(mian)花期貨5月(yue)合約結算(suan)(suan)(suan)價199.12美(mei)(mei)分/磅，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下跌(die)(die)5.82美(mei)(mei)分/磅，跌(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)2.8%。代表進(jin)(jin)口棉(mian)(mian)中國主港到岸均價的國際棉(mian)(mian)花指(zhi)數(shu)（M）按1%關(guan)稅計算(suan)(suan)(suan)，折(zhe)人(ren)民幣(bi)進(jin)(jin)口成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)37432元/噸(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下跌(die)(die)1446元/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)3.7%；按滑準稅計算(suan)(suan)(suan)，折(zhe)人(ren)民幣(bi)進(jin)(jin)口成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)37636元/噸(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)下跌(die)(die)1431元/噸(dun)，跌(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)3.7%。

　　國(guo)際(ji)(ji)棉(mian)價的(de)劇烈(lie)波動已對(dui)現貨成交(jiao)造(zao)成影響(xiang)，前期(qi)棉(mian)商(shang)(shang)反映的(de)毀(hui)約和成交(jiao)減少等情況得到證實(shi)。據(ju)3月4-10日(ri)的(de)美(mei)棉(mian)出口數(shu)據(ju)，當周美(mei)棉(mian)對(dui)中國(guo)的(de)簽約量(liang)僅為(wei)0.66萬噸，而(er)毀(hui)約量(liang)達到1.34萬噸，新花的(de)簽約量(liang)也大(da)大(da)減少。近期(qi)，國(guo)際(ji)(ji)政治和經濟(ji)形勢較為(wei)復雜，一方(fang)面，由日(ri)本(ben)地震(zhen)引發(fa)的(de)“核危機”事件不斷升級，日(ri)本(ben)啟動大(da)規(gui)模注資，國(guo)際(ji)(ji)社(she)會出臺干預匯(hui)市政策，加之市場對(dui)國(guo)際(ji)(ji)原材(cai)料、能(neng)源產品的(de)需求存在變數(shu)，給大(da)宗(zong)商(shang)(shang)品走勢帶來較大(da)的(de)不確定因素；另一方(fang)面，利(li)比亞(ya)緊張局勢升級，20日(ri)凌晨(chen)西(xi)方(fang)多國(guo)正(zheng)式揭(jie)開軍事干預利(li)比亞(ya)大(da)幕，也將加大(da)以石油為(wei)代表(biao)的(de)大(da)宗(zong)商(shang)(shang)品價格的(de)波動幅(fu)度。在此背景下，預計國(guo)際(ji)(ji)棉(mian)價仍將維持大(da)幅(fu)振蕩格局。