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近日，在云南昆明召開的2021年(nian)(nian)西電東送(song)省間(jian)協(xie)商會(hui)暨南方區域跨(kua)區跨(kua)省“六簽(qian)”工(gong)作推進會(hui)上(shang)，參(can)會(hui)各(ge)方綜合經濟形(xing)勢、氣候預測、疫情影響、用(yong)(yong)電結構(gou)及(ji)今年(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)電增長等(deng)情況，對(dui)下一(yi)階段的電力供需形(xing)勢進行了深(shen)入分析。

會上，南方(fang)(fang)(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公(gong)司通報了南方(fang)(fang)(fang)區(qu)域(yu)2020年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應、電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)運行及西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送情況，分(fen)析了2021年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需形勢(shi)，介紹了2021年(nian)西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送優(you)先計(ji)劃安(an)排建議。通報顯(xian)示，今年(nian)1—10月(yue)，南方(fang)(fang)(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)統調最大負荷(he)2億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長7%，6月(yue)以(yi)來七創新高；南方(fang)(fang)(fang)五(wu)省區(qu)全(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)10708億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增(zeng)長3.8%；累計(ji)完(wan)成西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1980億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時，超年(nian)度協(xie)議計(ji)劃281億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時。

經濟持續復蘇 增供擴銷見效

隨(sui)著復工(gong)復產的(de)(de)穩步(bu)推進，1—10月，南方(fang)五省區全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)3.8%，其(qi)中，第一(yi)產業(ye)和居民生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速強勁，分別達到10.7%和7.9%，成(cheng)為拉(la)動整體用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)(de)主力(li)。第二、三產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)穩步(bu)回升，工(gong)業(ye)、制造業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)持續恢復，其(qi)中，黑色、有(you)色、建材和化工(gong)四大高耗能行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量突破2600億(yi)千瓦時，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子(zi)設(she)備制造業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速超過15%。值得一(yi)提的(de)(de)是，第三季度(du)，第二、三產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量都翻(fan)了兩倍以上，表明(ming)經濟的(de)(de)加(jia)快恢復，刺激了產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)。

分省區(qu)看(kan)，1—10月(yue)(yue)，廣(guang)東(dong)工(gong)業(ye)與第(di)三(san)產業(ye)用(yong)電持續恢復，居民(min)用(yong)電保持較高增長(chang)，廣(guang)東(dong)制造業(ye)自5月(yue)(yue)轉正(zheng)后，連(lian)續6個月(yue)(yue)保持正(zheng)增長(chang)。3月(yue)(yue)以來，廣(guang)西工(gong)業(ye)用(yong)電增長(chang)平穩(wen)，云南新產能開(kai)工(gong)率持續走高，有效支撐了用(yong)電量的高速增長(chang)。

分行業(ye)看，1—10月，南方(fang)五省區工(gong)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)6566億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比增(zeng)長2.8%，其(qi)中(zhong)四大高耗能行業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)達到2606億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時，分別為4.8%、13.9%、14.3%、0.9%，全部實(shi)現正(zheng)增(zeng)長。前(qian)10個月內(nei)，制造業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)同(tong)比增(zeng)長4.3%，增(zeng)速(su)高于(yu)工(gong)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)1.5個百(bai)分點，其(qi)中(zhong)計算機(ji)、通信和其(qi)他電(dian)(dian)子(zi)設備制造業(ye)實(shi)現兩位(wei)數的增(zeng)長，達到15.2%。

疫情防控期間，人們對電(dian)子(zi)(zi)商務(wu)(wu)、在線教(jiao)育、網(wang)上會(hui)議、遠程診(zhen)療(liao)等信(xin)息(xi)需求的(de)大幅增(zeng)加，數字經濟順勢成為社(she)會(hui)經濟復(fu)蘇和(he)高質量發展的(de)“加速器”。其中(zhong)，行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)數據的(de)增(zeng)長成了很好的(de)證明，在構成信(xin)息(xi)傳輸、軟件和(he)信(xin)息(xi)技術服(fu)務(wu)(wu)業(ye)同(tong)比增(zeng)長18.9%的(de)子(zi)(zi)行業(ye)中(zhong)，互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)數據服(fu)務(wu)(wu)業(ye)的(de)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)長達(da)到了110.7%。

清潔能源基本全額消納 西電東送電量再創新高

11月17日(ri)，貴州電(dian)網新(xin)能源日(ri)發(fa)電(dian)量連續兩日(ri)創歷史新(xin)高，首次突(tu)破1億千瓦(wa)時大關(guan)，最(zui)高達1.06億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)35.7%，占當日(ri)發(fa)電(dian)量的19%以上。

今年(nian)以來，南(nan)方(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網公司堅(jian)決貫徹(che)黨中(zhong)(zhong)央、國務院決策部署，全力(li)(li)(li)推(tui)(tui)進清潔能源消納和克服疫情(qing)影響，年(nian)初制(zhi)定清潔能源消納24項舉(ju)措，實現(xian)云貴(gui)互聯通道工(gong)程提前投運和昆柳龍(long)直流工(gong)程提前完成階段性投產，為富余(yu)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)消納奠定堅(jian)實基礎(chu)；進一步(bu)深(shen)化(hua)(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)體(ti)制(zhi)改革(ge)，深(shen)入(ru)推(tui)(tui)進電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)建(jian)設(she)，首次(ci)組(zu)織開展南(nan)方(fang)區域跨區跨省年(nian)度(du)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)，積極(ji)推(tui)(tui)動中(zhong)(zhong)長期合同簽訂，實現(xian)區域統(tong)一電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)平臺在貴(gui)州、廣州電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)中(zhong)(zhong)心上線運行；完善市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)(hua)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)機制(zhi)，建(jian)立(li)云電(dian)(dian)(dian)送(song)粵曲線外電(dian)(dian)(dian)量價(jia)格浮動機制(zhi)，推(tui)(tui)動實施云電(dian)(dian)(dian)入(ru)瓊，協調推(tui)(tui)動烏東德電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)調試、送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與購售(shou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)合同談判工(gong)作同步(bu)進行，最(zui)大限度(du)消納西部富余(yu)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

1—10月(yue)(yue)，南(nan)(nan)方電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公司累(lei)計(ji)組織跨省(sheng)區(qu)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)290億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，其中(zhong)云(yun)南(nan)(nan)富余(yu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)送(song)(song)廣東(dong)247億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、增(zeng)(zeng)送(song)(song)海南(nan)(nan)13.2億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、廣西(xi)送(song)(song)廣東(dong)扶貧電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)29.9億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；全網(wang)省(sheng)內市場化(hua)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)4009.6億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長22%；累(lei)計(ji)完成西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1980億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，超年(nian)(nian)度協議計(ji)劃281億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。預計(ji)全年(nian)(nian)西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)可(ke)達2300億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長1.7%，同時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)在規模上(shang)將再創(chuang)歷史新(xin)高，屆(jie)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)將連(lian)續(xu)4年(nian)(nian)突破(po)2000億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，“十三五”期(qi)間累(lei)計(ji)突破(po)1萬億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，年(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)長約4%。清潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納方面，截至10月(yue)(yue)底，全網(wang)統調水(shui)能(neng)利用率(lv)高達99.3%，其中(zhong)云(yun)南(nan)(nan)統調水(shui)能(neng)利用率(lv)98.9%，遠(yuan)高于(yu)國家發改委、國家能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)局印發的《清潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納行動計(ji)劃(2018—2020年(nian)(nian))》中(zhong)2020年(nian)(nian)水(shui)能(neng)利用率(lv)95%這一目標，實現(xian)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏(fu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)清潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)基本全額(e)消(xiao)納。

蓄能存煤充足 電力供應可靠

今年(nian)以來，南方電網公司密(mi)切跟蹤五省(sheng)區復工(gong)復產、氣(qi)溫走勢及來水(shui)(shui)(shui)變化，滾動優化送(song)受電安排，完善市(shi)場機制，提高交易(yi)頻次，積極(ji)組織云南富(fu)余(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電增送(song)，優化流域梯級電站(zhan)水(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)調度(du)，全(quan)力保障(zhang)南方五省(sheng)區電力可靠供(gong)應。截至10月底，全(quan)網水(shui)(shui)(shui)電蓄能637億千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比增加170億千瓦時(shi)，各主要(yao)水(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)均高位運行。電煤供(gong)應總體充足，電煤方面，全(quan)網存煤3000萬噸，可用67.5天(tian)。

除蓄(xu)能存煤充足外，新(xin)增(zeng)裝(zhuang)機的穩步增(zeng)長也為(wei)電力(li)可(ke)靠供應提供了保障(zhang)。1—10月(yue)，全網統調(diao)裝(zhuang)機新(xin)增(zeng)2216萬千瓦(wa)，截至10月(yue)底，全網統調(diao)裝(zhuang)機達3.39億千瓦(wa)。

【責任編(bian)輯：趙藝涵】